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Abstract

This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology, which allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and model stock market crashes. Utilizing high frequency data, we estimate the daily realized volatility from the returns in the first step and use stochastic cusp catastrophe on data normalized by the estimated volatility in the second step to study possible discontinuities in markets. We support our methodology by simulations where we also discuss the importance of stochastic noise and volatility in deterministic cusp catastrophe model. The methodology is empirically tested on almost 27 years of U.S. stock market evolution covering several important recessions and crisis periods. Due to the very long sample period we also develop a rolling estimation approach and we find that while in the first half of the period stock markets showed marks of bifurcations, in the second half catastrophe theory was not able to confirm this behavior. Results suggest that the proposed methodology provides an important shift in application of catastrophe theory to stock markets.

Details

1009240
Title
Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under the time-varying volatility
Publication title
arXiv.org; Ithaca
Publication year
2013
Publication date
May 22, 2013
Section
Quantitative Finance
Publisher
Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
Source
arXiv.org
Place of publication
Ithaca
Country of publication
United States
University/institution
Cornell University Library arXiv.org
e-ISSN
2331-8422
Source type
Working Paper
Language of publication
English
Document type
Working Paper
Publication history
 
 
Online publication date
2013-05-23
Milestone dates
2013-02-27 (Submission v1); 2013-05-22 (Submission v2)
Publication history
 
 
   First posting date
23 May 2013
ProQuest document ID
2085306307
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/working-papers/realizing-stock-market-crashes-stochastic-cusp/docview/2085306307/se-2?accountid=208611
Full text outside of ProQuest
Copyright
© 2013. This work is published under http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Last updated
2024-02-12
Database
ProQuest One Academic