Policy, planning, intelligence and foresight in government organizations

Introduction

Almost all organizations, including government agencies[1], face a complex and uncertain future, whether or not it is apparent to them. Perceived stability is an effective breeding ground for complacency and stagnation. Such a mindset has potentially very negative effects on and consequences for organizational health, longevity, prosperity and even survival in the face of unanticipated change, which can occasionally be precipitous or even cataclysmic. Single-stream prediction, forecasting and planning are almost invariably ineffective, in the face of such changes. The missing ingredient is strategic foresight, generally known simply as “foresight”[2].

Various authors have described and demonstrated the need to incorporate a strategic foresight component into an organization’s policy, planning and intelligence[3] framework to produce effective decisions and optimum outcomes in today’s highly complex decision environment (Fuerth and Faber, 2012; Roney, 2010). In addition, many government agency and business leaders, leadership writers and governments themselves have demonstrated an increasing appetite to have the ability to look forward, or “foresight”, included in organizational decision-making processes and products (Lynch, 2014; Murphy, 2003; Statman and Scheid, 2002; Stark, 2014; Skills You Need, 2014).

This paper builds on an earlier one by the same author (Schmidt, 2015) that discusses and illustrates how the planning, policy, intelligence and foresight functions best operate collaboratively to form an integrated system supporting effective, adaptive and resilient organizational decision-making processes.

Focusing on government agencies, especially those supporting mature, liberal democratic governments, the purpose of the current paper is to propose a new, practical, low-cost and high-return model for implementing a programmatic foresight function that is integrated with the organization’s existing policy, planning and intelligence functions. The paper describes the relevant organizational considerations and options for structural adjustments, and suggests how the proposed model can maximize decision-making effectiveness without disrupting pre-existing structures, operations and products.

Policy, planning and intelligence

The existing basic government agency organizational framework to which the proposed model applies comprises three main, mutually juxtaposed functional components: policy, planning and intelligence.

Policy is defined as a statement of principle, as of a government, government agency or business, intended to influence and determine decisions, protocols and other such matters. Policy-making and planning are not the same, but are tightly interconnected. In simple terms, planning is the development of objectives and means of achieving them...