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© 2018. This work is published under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

Computer models are ubiquitous tools used to represent systems across many scientific and engineering domains. For any given system, many computer models exist, each built on different assumptions and demonstrating variability in the ways in which these systems can be represented. This variability is known as epistemic uncertainty, i.e. uncertainty in our knowledge of how these systems operate. Two primary sources of epistemic uncertainty are (1) uncertain parameter values and (2) uncertain mathematical representations of the processes that comprise the system. Many formal methods exist to analyse parameter-based epistemic uncertainty, while process-representation-based epistemic uncertainty is often analysed post hoc, incompletely, informally, or is ignored. In this model description paper we present the multi-assumption architecture and testbed (MAAT v1.0) designed to formally and completely analyse process-representation-based epistemic uncertainty. MAAT is a modular modelling code that can simply and efficiently vary model structure (process representation), allowing for the generation and running of large model ensembles that vary in process representation, parameters, parameter values, and environmental conditions during a single execution of the code. MAAT v1.0 approaches epistemic uncertainty through sensitivity analysis, assigning variability in model output to processes (process representation and parameters) or to individual parameters. In this model description paper we describe MAAT and, by using a simple groundwater model example, verify that the sensitivity analysis algorithms have been correctly implemented. The main system model currently coded in MAAT is a unified, leaf-scale enzyme kinetic model of C3 photosynthesis. In the Appendix we describe the photosynthesis model and the unification of multiple representations of photosynthetic processes. The numerical solution to leaf-scale photosynthesis is verified and examples of process variability in temperature response functions are provided. For rapid application to new systems, the MAAT algorithms for efficient variation of model structure and sensitivity analysis are agnostic of the specific system model employed. Therefore MAAT provides a tool for the development of novel or “toy” models in many domains, i.e. not only photosynthesis, facilitating rapid informal and formal comparison of alternative modelling approaches.

Details

Title
The multi-assumption architecture and testbed (MAAT v1.0): R code for generating ensembles with dynamic model structure and analysis of epistemic uncertainty from multiple sources
Author
Walker, Anthony P 1   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Ye, Ming 2 ; Lu, Dan 3 ; De Kauwe, Martin G 4   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Gu, Lianhong 1 ; Medlyn, Belinda E 5 ; Rogers, Alistair 6   VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Serbin, Shawn P 6   VIAFID ORCID Logo 

 Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA 
 Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA 
 Computational Sciences and Engineering Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA 
 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia 
 Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University. Locked Bag 1797 Penrith, New South Wales, Australia 
 Environmental and Climate Sciences Department, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, New York, USA 
Pages
3159-3185
Publication year
2018
Publication date
2018
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
ISSN
1991962X
e-ISSN
19919603
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2086142038
Copyright
© 2018. This work is published under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.