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Arizona has experienced rapid population growth continuously for the last six years. Fast growth is likely to proceed for at least one more year.
Numeric population increases have been trending upward over the last 20 years in Arizona. Projections suggest this upward trend will continue through at least the year 2020. The record growth of the last several years, however, also reflects the significant cyclicality of Arizona's economic and population growth.
The Center for Business Research (CBR) is the sole source of quarterly estimates of the population in Maricopa County and Arizona, releasing figures about one month after the end of each quarter. The CBR also produces annual estimates, expressed as of July 1, for Pima County and for the balance of Arizona. Population projections for 20 to 25 years into the future are updated annually.
LATEST ESTIMATES
Very minor revisions to the population estimates for 1997 and 1998 recently were made. The quarterly estimates were presented in the December 1998 issue of AZB. As of third quarter 1998, Arizona's population was estimated at 4,733,000, with 2,815,000 living in Maricopa County.
Population growth in the current cycle peaked in early 1996. Net migration to Maricopa County was 19,000 in fourth quarter 1995 and first quarter 1996, the two highest figures on record. Since then, net migration has fluctuated between 13,000 and 18,000 per quarter.
Compared to the peak of the last cycle in the 1980s, population growth in the current cycle is slightly higher. More notably, the rapid growth period during the current cycle already has lasted six years, compared to four years in the 1980s.
Table 1 shows the components of Maricopa County's population change over the last four years. Since late 1995, the number of occupied housing units has increased from between 8,400 and 10,100 per quarter in all but one quarter. These absorption figures are well below those of the mid- 1980s, when the quarterly change in occupied housing units exceeded 10,100 for 10 of 12 quarters from late 1983 into 1986.
In addition to occupied housing units, average household size is a key component to estimating population. Household size has fallen throughout American history, except for brief periods during economic recessions. Declines currently are minimal, however, as household size nationally is...