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Popul Environ (2006) 27:245261
DOI 10.1007/s11111-006-0021-6ORIGINAL PAPERScenario Development for 2050 for the Israeli /
Palestinian Water SectorJonathan L. Chenoweth Walter WehrmeyerReceived: 14 December 2005 / Accepted: 8 May 2006 /
Published online: 23 June 2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2006Abstract Scenario analysis suggests that by 2050 the population of Israel, the West
Bank and Gaza will grow from its current 10 million to between 14 and 28 million.
The scenarios developed are compared to available water resources and assessed for
their viability. With all scenarios, except very high population growth in the context
of inadequate co-operation between Israel and Palestine, the water resource needs
of the entire population can be met. The analysis suggests that water need not be an
obstacle to peace or economic development in the region.Keywords Water resources Water sector Long-term planning
Scenario analysis Israel Palestine West Bank GazaIntroductionIsrael, the West Bank and Gaza Strip are located between the Jordan River and the
Mediterranean Sea. The West Bank and Gaza Strip (hereafter collectively referred
to as Palestine), and Israel are very densely settled by global standards, having a
higher population density than most European countries, and in the case of Palestine, average population density significantly exceeds that of all European Union
states except Malta (Central Intelligence Agency, 2006). Because approximately half
the land is arid and thus sparsely inhabited, effective population densities in much of
Israel and Palestine are much higher than the average figures suggest.Already Israel and Palestine have very low water resources availability compared
to the global average (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2004). In the case of
Palestine, this water scarcity directly impacts upon daily life and economic activity
for much of the population. With rapid population growth in the region and water
resources already inadequate, the long-term hydrological future of region appears
problematic. Furthermore, the backdrop of the IsraeliPalestinian conflict hindersJ. L. Chenoweth (&) W. Wehrmeyer
Centre for Environmental Strategy, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH, UK
e-mail: [email protected] Popul Environ (2006) 27:245261cooperation as well as economic and social development, and the implementation of
technical solutions to the regions water crisis.This paper assesses what are the long-term implications, in relation to water
resources management, of Israel and Palestines expected population growth by
developing a range of feasible scenarios...