SIMPLIFICATIONS FOR SINGLE-ROUTE TRANSIT-RIDERSHIP FORECASTING MODELS: ABSTRACT Introduction Structure of TRFM Evaluation of Model Error SYSTEMATIC ERROR RANDOM ERROR Discussion and Conclusions References

Abstract

The growth in popularity of microcomputers has reemphasized the need for simplified transit-planning techniques. This paper describes and evaluates a single-route ridershtp forecasting model which is designed to fit within a modest-sized microcomputer. The model is based upon the traditional four-step urban transportation modeling process, but it as simplified by removing the possibility of multiple transfers and by eliminating the highway network. An analysis of model error shows that these simplifications do not appreciably affect the accuracy of the forecasts. A particular advantage of implementing the model on a microcomputer is the user-friendliness that can be achieved by employing interactive color graphics for data input.