Environmental Scanning and Scenario Planning: A 12 month Perspective on Applying the Viable Systems Model to Developing Public Sector Foresight

Syst Pract Action Res (2009) 22:249274 DOI 10.1007/s11213-009-9127-y

ORIGINAL PAPER

Russell Clemens

Published online: 1 May 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

Abstract An environmental scan project is outlined and discussed using the viable systems model (VSM). A participant/observer perspective applied futures thinking, systems practice, scenario orientated narratives and risk assessment frameworks to an annual corporate planning process involving engagement and communication with senior public sector executives. Focus was given to improving foresight techniques through the innovative use of existing resources and skills. Results included additional work on scenario development, designing a decentralised Development Directorate network and evaluating complexity science sense-making techniques to enhance foresight capacity.

Keywords Futures research Systems thinking Soft systems methodology

Governance Environmental scanning Foresight Scenario planning

Policy development Risk assessment Action research Sustainability

Management cybernetics Case study

Introduction

This paper provides a brief description of the background, theory, methodology and resulting process surrounding environmental scanning and subsequent related foresight activities as they emerged within a public sector context in three distinct but related stages over approximately 12 months from mid-2007 through to mid-2008.

Environmental scanning seeks social, technological, environmental (biosphere), economic and political (STEEP) informationacross international, national and local domainsrelating to the future viability of an organisation and success in meeting its strategic objectives (Morrison 1992). The action research is specic to the local context

Submitted with assistance from Dr. Angela Espinosa, Hull University Business School, UK.

The views expressed in this paper are the authors and do not represent those of any organisation mentioned or implied.

R. Clemens (&)

Curtin University Sustainability Policy Institute, Perth, WA, Australia e-mail: [email protected]

Environmental Scanning and Scenario Planning:A 12 month Perspective on Applying the Viable Systems Model to Developing Public Sector Foresight

123

250 Syst Pract Action Res (2009) 22:249274

and generalisation may not be useful. However, the case study may provide insight into developing effective executive foresight capacity and communication strategy.

An ad-hoc methodology was developed using the soft systems methodology (SSM) (Checkland 1993) in Stage 1. The viable systems model (VSM; Beer 1975, 1979, 1981, 1985, 1994) was applied throughout the project. Insights and tacit knowledge on appreciating the external environment (Beer 1979) guided the research and informed the design of a notional VSM S4 Development Directorate in Stage 3. Note:...