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(corresponding author, [email protected])
INTRODUCTION
Heightened tensions over territorial issues have been a flash point of militarized conflict between Japan and China. Since the purchase of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands by the Japanese government in September 2012, a substantial number of Chinese vessels have entered the territorial waters near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.1 Academic pundits and the news media have been forecasting an accidental collision over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, which could escalate into serious militarized conflict (e.g., BBC 2013, 2014, 2017; The Economist 2013). Along with the concurrent dispute in the South China Sea, the prospect of détente remains slim in the short term.
With rapid growth in its military expenditure and economic power, China has made incremental territorial claims in neighboring seas. The Chinese government has put pressure on Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu issue and has even attempted to broaden the territorial dispute by suggesting a challenge to Japan's sovereignty over the Okinawa Islands (McCurry 2013). The conservative Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe, often recognized as hawkish in his political stance, has stood firm against such territorial challenges from China. While consolidating his conservative political basis, PM Abe recently reinterpreted Article IX of the Constitution and passed security legislation for further military cooperation with the US, thereby signaling Japan's strong resolve for national security and territorial integrity.
The ongoing bilateral tension brings significant impacts on domestic politics and public opinion. Given China's growing appetite for territorial expansion, do persistent tensions influence the Japanese public's perception of the threat from China and support for the uncompromising political leader? If so, does such territorial threat elicit broad-based support for the Japanese leader or heterogeneous responses depending on their political positions or historical beliefs? This study aims to unpack the mechanisms of public opinion shift alongside the public's awareness of territorial threats.2
Previous experimental work suggests that two existing theories account for such threat-induced public opinion shift. First, the “rally ’round the flag” effect (henceforth, the “rally effect”) is a conventional theoretical framework to explain the impacts of threat perception on incumbent support—that is, voter approval of political leaders will increase when the country is under threat (Gaines 2002; Hetherington and Nelson 2003; Mueller 1973). More specifically, social psychological studies have demonstrated that the key mediator...