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Summary
In the 1990s there has been renewed interest in risk assessment with offenders. It is important to distinguish between terms such as dangerousness, prediction and risk assessment. It is particularly difficult to estimate the probability of occurrence for behaviours with low base rates, such as homicide and suicide. A generic framework for risk assessment is outlined. Risk factors associated with suicide amongst offenders are examined. Homicide is used as an exemplar for the risk assessment framework. The need for theory led risk assessments to inform risk management and review strategies are emphasized.
In the 1990s there has been renewed interest in risk assessment with offenders (e.g. Kemshall, 1995; 1996; Prins, 1995; Tallant & Strachan, 1995). Risk is variously expressed in terms of their perceived 'dangers' to the public (e.g. H M Inspectorate of Probation, 1995), of self-injury (e.g. amongst young men, Livingston, 1997; amongst women, Snow, 1997) and of suicide (Crighton & Towl, 1996). The manifold conceptual and clinical problems associated with risk assessment work have received much comment (e.g. Monahan, 1981; Monahan & Steadman, 1994).
In this paper focus is on two broad behavioural categories-homicide and suicide-commonly associated with work on risk assessment amongst forensic practitioners and researchers. Conceptually, in terms of risk assessment, homicide and suicide share at least two common features. Both are comparatively rare events, and both are irreversible (Towl, 1996).
Dangerousness
Considerable concern has been expressed about the use and misuse of the term 'dangerousness' (e.g. Floud & Young, 1981; Murray, 1989). The term easily lends itself to the notion that people are dangerous or they are not. The assumption that 'risk' is usefully construed as a dichotomous rather than continuous variable is fallacious (Towl, 1996). Also the term is very vague. It is a term still in use (e.g. Hinton, 1983; Walker 1996), and some authors appear to conflate their use of `dangerousness' and 'risk' (e.g. Webster et al., 1995). Most in the field, however, prefer not to use it at least as a description of a person.
Prediction
It is important to distinguish between the act of predicting a specified outcome e.g. reconviction using actuarial data, and the act of estimating the probability of the outcome occurring for an individual. The former characterizes prediction studies, the...