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Keywords
Disasters, Disaster management, Behavioural sciences
Abstract
A recent question from the research literature is addressed: to what extent does the behavioral response to the natural and technological disaster model apply to terrorist events involving a weapon of mass destruction (WMD)? Earlier work argued that the literature is applicable. Anecdotal evidence and preliminary content analysis findings from the aftermath of the terrorist attack of 11 September 2001 demonstrate the salience of the model to terrorism.
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In 1998 this author was asked to write a White Paper (Fischer, 1998a), that would outline the likely behavioral response of citizens impacted by terrorism involving a weapon of mass destruction (WMD). As a result of Presidential Decision Directive 39 (PDD-39, 1995), the US Defense Department (DOD) sought to obtain social science-based information that would be useful in designing counter-terrorism training sessions for major US metropolitan areas. The White Paper was to be a social science guide for table-top training vignettes. The White Paper merged a review of the disaster research literature on behavioral response to disaster (based upon studies of the behavioral response to natural and technological disasters) with the research literature on the medical effects of nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) agents (for example, see Beres, 1997; Betts, 1998; Christopher et al., 1997; US Congress, 2000; Fischer, 2000; Holloway et al., 1997; Steinbruner, 1997; Tucker, 1998; Zilinskas, 1997). The argument was made in the paper that, lacking any other alternative, the disaster research literature provided the best model for predicting the likely behavioral scenarios in terrorism involving a WMD. It was also noted in the paper that we, fortunately, had not had an opportunity for a large-scale test of the assertion that it is the best predictive model. The terrorism attack on the USA on 11 September 2001 has, unfortunately, provided the opportunity to determine whether indeed the model is applicable. The purpose of the current paper is to summarize what we know from the disaster research literature and compare it, at least in a preliminary fashion, with what we observe occurring in the aftermath of the attack on and collapse of the New York City...