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This paper reframes our inquiry into voter turnout by making aging the lens through which the traditional resource and cost measures of previous turnout research are viewed, thereby making three related contributions. (1) I offer a developmental theory of turnout. This framework follows from the observation that most citizens are habitual voters or habitual nonvoters (they display inertia). Most young citizens start their political lives as habitual nonvoters but they vary in how long it takes to develop into habitual voters. With this transition at the core of the framework, previous findings concerning costs and resources can easily be integrated into developmental theory. (2) I make a methodological contribution by applying latent growth curve models to panel data. (3) Finally, the empirical analyses provide the developmental theory with strong support and also provide a better understanding of the roles of aging, parenthood, partisanship, and geographic mobility.
Every presidential election raises questions about voter turnout in the United States and, in particular, the very low turnout of young voters. Why is voter turnout so much lower among the youngest citizens? Can interventions addressed specifically toward young voters likely to have a lasting impact? Are some groups of young citizens especially cut off from the political system, and could this have consequences for their participation later in life?
How can we generate better answers to questions such as these? I argue that we need to reframe our approach to voter turnout by subsuming the familiar costs-resources framework within a developmental perspective. Doing so leads to more precise and qualified questions and spurs use of more appropriate models. I show that doing so can yield more valid and satisfying answers to questions about voting behavior.
REFRAMING INQUIRY INTO VOTER TURNOUT
Turning out to vote is the most common and important act citizens take in a democracy and, therefore, is one of the most important behaviors for scholars of democratic politics to understand. And yet, it is not well understood. (Aldrich 1993, 246)
Our poor understanding of turnout does not stem from neglect. Rather, scholars have struggled to find a unifying framework that might integrate the many findings and explanations. Most research on turnout has been guided by a focus on resources that help voters overcome the costs...