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This article explores some of the reasonsfor the transition of Futures Studies (FS) from an insubstantial "perspective" to an applied discipline. It begins with an outline of the author's own starting points and continues with a brief account of critical futures studies. It reviews how this perspective was implemented in master's courses within three universities and describes aspects of the knowledge base of FS that emerged at that time. Finally, the article traces some of the links between the intellectual foundations of FS and emerging applications in a variety of organizations. It concludes that the kinds of knowledge and capability created will be increasingly useful throughout society in negotiating the turbulence ahead.
Nearly a quarter of a century ago, the CIBA Foundation ( 1975) published a book called The Future as an Academic Discipline. I remember approaching the book with eager anticipation, then recoiling in disappointment as I read the turgid prose, the lackluster analysis. If, at that time, the title had been posed as a question, then the answer would have been "no." But now, nearly 25 years later, the answer is a definite "yes": Futures studies (FS) has come of age during this time. My own journey into FS has paralleled its emergence from obscurity to a growing preeminence on the world scene.
To most people, the future is an abstraction, an empty box. Standing unconsciously within an empiricist frame, even highly educated people will ask questions such as "If it doesn't exist, how can you study it?" or "Can futurists predict the future?" Such questions are more revealing of the questioner than of FS because they display typical unexamined assumptions. The fact is that, yes, the future does exist: It is a profoundly vital component of the present (however defined) or, more fundamentally, a principle of present action, present being (Slaughter, 1996d). But, no, the future cannot be predicted. It can be understood, explored, mapped, and created, but not predicted. This is because human beings are agents of history and their freedom of action means that the future cannot, in principle, ever be predetermined.
It is easy to show in theory, practice, and also experientially that this domain that we call "the future" is not an abstraction, not an empty box,...