The Fates of Third-Wave Democracies

Since the "third wave" of democratization began in 1974, analysts have devoted much attention to studying the birth of new democracies. But how have these regimes fared over the longer term? Beyond the up-or-down question of survival versus breakdown, new democracies may encounter a variety of fates. These democracies may deepen, with once-fragile institutions increasingly safeguarding a broad panoply of liberal-democratic rights; they may remain mired in long-term struggles to overcome illiberal practices and institutional dysfunction; and they may slip toward the borderline of competitive authoritarianism or break down completely. Without considering the full range of outcomes, it is impossible to fully grasp the achievements and the disappointments of the third wave.

Despite broad interest in global patterns of democratization, scholars have not yet systematically tracked the fortunes of all third-wave democracies. This article offers the first comprehensive analysis of the outcomes of all democratic transitions from 1974 to 2012.¹ While many studies have focused on democratic transitions and breakdowns, our analysis also tracks changing levels of democracy in regimes that have steadily held democratic elections. In other words, we consider not only changes of regime—from democracy back to dictatorship—but also changes within democracies. In comparison to the conceptual work on transitions and breakdowns, frameworks for understanding what leads democracy to deepen, stagnate, or erode are far less developed. At a time of growing alarm over democratic backsliding around the globe, these questions deserve careful consideration.

We survey posttransition trajectories by grouping the fates of the 91 democratic regimes that (by our count) emerged in 1974–2012 into five mutually exclusive and jointly exhaustive categories: democratic breakdowns, erosions, stagnations, advances, and cases where regimes have remained highly democratic without major advances. The results of the analysis are sobering. Among the 91 new democracies that emerged during the third wave,² 34 experienced breakdowns, often in short order. In 28 cases, democracy stagnated after the transition, usually at a fairly low level, and in two others it eroded. There have been some successes; 23 regimes achieved major democratic advances between their first year of democracy and 2017. Four others attained fairly high levels of democracy at the outset and were still high-level democracies in 2017. Still, unqualified success has been uncommon, and the...