Time series analysis of malaria in Kumasi: Using ARIMA models to forecast future incidence

Abstract

Malaria is a disease caused by the Plasmodium genus that is transmitted between humans by Anopheles mosquitoes. The study sought to assess the trends of Malaria incidence in Kumasi Metropolis and forecast future incidence. A retrospective comparative study design was employed using data from the Regional Health Directorate from January 2010 to December 2016. Trend of malaria prevalence was analysed and compared by years and months. Data used for the study was entirely secondary which was gathered from recorded monthly malaria cases at various hospitals in Kumasi. The Quadratic model was used for the forecasting of the half year incidence of Malaria while Auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (1, 1, 2) was used for forecasting monthly malaria incidence for the years 2018 and 2019 in Kumasi Metropolis. For the general pattern, July recorded the highest number of cases whereas January recorded the lowest cases in each year. Also, 2010 was the best performing year since it recorded the lowest number of malaria cases (10,336). The projected malaria cases for the first half year of 2018 is expected to be 61,371.8, while the second half year is expected to be 77,842.0. This model is recommended to the metropolitan health directorate and researchers who want to monitor the malaria reported cases in the metropolis and other parts of the world. It is suggested that measures should be put in place to curb malaria incidence during the period of the year when high incidence were recorded.