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Florida has been visited by some of the most destructive and devastating hurricanes on record in the United States causing well over $450 billion in damage since the early 20th century. The value of insured property in Florida against windstorm damage is the highest in the nation and on the rise. The frequency and severity of hurricanes affecting Florida are examined from the best set of available data and the damages are related to characteristics of the storms at landfall. Results show that normalized losses are increasing over time consistent with small increases in hurricane intensity and hurricane size. The best predictor of potential losses is minimum central pressure. Hurricane size alone or in combination with hurricane intensity does not improve on the simpler relationship. An estimate of potential losses from hurricanes can be obtained using a formula involving only a forecast of the minimum pressure at landfall. The ability to estimate potential losses in Florida will increase the ability to estimate losses in other areas of the United States, and will also allow policy makers and insurance companies to provide relevant information to the concerned public.
key words: Florida, hurricanes, landfall, insurance, losses, trends, correlation
INTRODUCTION
The hurricane is an awesome, yet deadly and destructive natural phenomenon of the Earth's occasionally tumultuous atmosphere. A hurricane is powered by the heat and moisture of the tropical oceans rather than thermal contrasts across latitudes as is the case for the more common extratropical cyclone. The result is a powerful storm, causing unprecedented amounts of deaths and economic loss. Dollar losses from hurricanes are at the top of the list of catastrophic events ahead of tornadoes and terrorism. Not surprisingly, because of its location relative to the warm waters of the North Atlantic (including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea), Florida is more likely to get hit by a hurricane than any other state in the union. On average at least one hurricane strikes Florida every two years and a strong hurricane hits Florida on average once every four years (averages come from available data during 1900-2007). Eight of the 10 most expensive hurricanes ever to make landfall in U.S. history have had at least some affect on Florida, causing in excess of...