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Abstract: This study developed statistical models to forecast international undergraduate student enrollment at a Midwest university. The authors constructed a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with input variables to estimate future enrollment. This model reflected enrollment patterns by semester through highlighting seasonality. Further, authors added input variables such as visa policy changes, the rapid increase of Chinese undergraduate enrollment, and tuition rate into the model estimation. The visa policy change and the increase of Chinese undergraduate enrollment were significant predictors of international undergraduate enrollment. The effect of tuition rates was significant but minimal in magnitude. Findings of this study generate significant implications for policy, enrollment management, and student services for international students.
Keywords: enrollment forecasting, international students, SARIMA model, time series analysis, undergraduate international enrollment
Introduction
Over the past decades, a number of external changes have influenced the finance operations of U.S. higher education institutions. Since the latest economic recession, college/university revenues have become more reliant on income derived directly from students and their families and less on state government appropriations. Under the tuition-driven revenue model, the influence of student enrollment on budgeting and strategic planning has become crucial. Simply put, the ability to predict accurate student enrollment has become critical for institutional planning and operations.
From the academic years 2006-2007 to 2016-2017, international college student enrollment in the United States increased dramatically from 582,948 to 1,078,822. This represents 5.3% of the entire student body (Institute of International Education [IIE], 2017a). International students bring many benefits to U.S. campuses, including diverse cultural perspectives and financial resources, especially important to public institutions as most international students will pay a higher non-resident tuition rate. Moreover, some universities have added an international fee on top of non-resident tuition making international students the premium group with respect to cost. Since institutional budgets may rely on this premium, it is crucial to accurately forecast international enrollment for strategic planning and other purposes.
Reasons for international enrollment changes may vary. Tuition rates, employment opportunities, the likelihood of obtaining a permanent residency, visa policy, and campus environment all affect international enrollment (Bass, 2006;Bohman, 2009;Mazzarol & Soutar, 2002; Pimpa, 2004; Shih, 2016). It is imperative to build a sound forecasting model that considers these influential factors.
There is scant research on...