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This study uses national longitudinal data to explain the intergenerational transmission of divorce. Parental divorce is associated with an increased risk of offspring divorce, especially when wives or both spouses have experienced the dissolution of their parents' marriage. Offspring age at marriage, cohabitation, socioeconomic attainment, and prodivorce attitudes mediate modest proportions of the estimated effect of parental divorce. In contrast, a measure of interpersonal behavior problems mediates the largest share of the association. The findings suggest that parental divorce elevates the risk of offspring divorce by increasing the likelihood that offspring exhibit behaviors that interfere with the maintenance of mutually rewarding intimate relationships.
Studies based on large national samples consistently show that parental divorce increases the risk that offspring will see their own marriages end in divorce (Bumpass, Martin, & Sweet, 1991; Keith & Finlay, 1988; Kulka & Weingarten, 1979; Mueller & Pope, 1977; Pope & Mueller, 1976). Furthermore, this increase is large enough to be nontrivial. Using female respondents from the National Survey of Families and Households, Bumpass, Martin, and Sweet, found that parental divorce increases the odds of disruption within the first 5 years of marriage by 70%. This association is present among both Whites and African Americans, although it does not appear to be as strong among the latter group (Glenn & Kramer, 1987; McLanahan & Bumpass, 1988; Pope & Mueller, 1976). In spite of some variation across studies and populations, parental divorce is a welldocumented risk factor for marital dissolution.
The explanation for the association between parental divorce and offspring divorce, however, is not clear. In this article, I assess the extent to which several mediating processes account for the transmission of divorce across generations. A few studies have assessed some of these factors. However, reliance on retrospective data on marital history has limited researchers' ability to examine the mediating role of variables measured prior to offspring divorce. In contrast, the present study draws on national longitudinal data and uses a prospective design to assess potential explanatory mechanisms.
THEORY
Model of Offspring Marital Instability
Levinger (1976) argued that the likelihood of divorce rises to the extent that various factors decrease the rewards derived from the marriage, weaken the barriers to leaving the marriage, and increase the alternatives to the marriage....