The Economy Defies Conventional Wisdom: Impressive Output, Employment, and Long-Awaited Productivity Growth

Abstract

Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Fannie Mae = Fannie Mae, Washington, D.C.; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; ICIMS=Holmdel, New Jersey; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy.com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D.C.; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; S&P = Standard & Poor's, New York, New York; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C.; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California. At last, the average annual hourly earnings is reflecting the labor market conditions with a 2.8 percent growth for manufacturing and non-supervisory workers by the end of the second quarter. The Downward Pressure On Labor Participation, Aging population, and Need for More Innovation As A Source of Growth Baby boomers who have postponed retirement after the great recession are now retiring due to increased home and equity evaluation and the fact that some had remained in the labor market to support their unemployed family members. The supply-side policies in investment in technology, human capital, and infrastructure is the responsibility of the legislative and executive branches of government and cannot be managed through monetary policy choices.