Full Text

Turn on search term navigation

© 2019 Tang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

Background

As global climate change accelerates, ecologists and conservationists are increasingly investigating changes in biodiversity and predicting species distribution based on species observed at sites, but rarely consider those plant species that could potentially inhabit but are absent from these areas (i.e., the dark diversity and its distribution). Here, we estimated the dark diversity of vascular plants in China and picked up threatened dark species from the result, and applied maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to project current and future distributions of those dark species in their potential regions (those regions that have these dark species).

Methods

We used the Beals probability index to estimate dark diversity in China based on available species distribution information and explored which environmental variables had significant impacts on dark diversity by incorporating bioclimatic data into the random forest (RF) model. We collected occurrence data of threatened dark species (Eucommia ulmoides, Liriodendron chinense, Phoebe bournei, Fagus longipetiolata, Amentotaxus argotaenia, and Cathaya argyrophylla) and related bioclimatic information that can be used to predict their distributions. In addition, we used MaxEnt modeling to project their distributions in suitable areas under future (2050 and 2070) climate change scenarios.

Results

We found that every study region’s dark diversity was lower than its observed species richness. In these areas, their numbers of dark species are ranging from 0 to 215, with a generally increasing trend from western regions to the east. RF results showed that temperature variables had a more significant effect on dark diversity than those associated with precipitation. The results of MaxEnt modeling showed that most threatened dark species were climatically suitable in their potential regions from current to 2070.

Discussions

The results of this study provide the first ever dark diversity patterns concentrated in China, even though it was estimated at the provincial scale. A combination of dark diversity and MaxEnt modeling is an effective way to shed light on the species that make up the dark diversity, such as projecting the distribution of specific dark species under global climate change. Besides, the combination of dark diversity and species distribution models (SDMs) may also be of value for ex situ conservation, ecological restoration, and species invasion prevention in the future.

Details

Title
Throwing light on dark diversity of vascular plants in China: predicting the distribution of dark and threatened species under global climate change
Author
Tang, Lili; Wang, Runxi; He, Kate S; Shi, Cong; Yang, Tong; Huang, Yaping; Zheng, Pufan; Shi, Fuchen
Publication year
2019
Publication date
Apr 9, 2019
Publisher
PeerJ, Inc.
e-ISSN
21678359
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2205998210
Copyright
© 2019 Tang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.