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The term, "waves of democratization," popularized by Huntington (1991), can be conceptualized in at least three ways: as rises in the global level of democracy, as periods of positive net transitions to democracy, and as linked sets of transitions to democracy. Each of these approaches to the concept carries distinct theoretical implications and generates somewhat different historical patterns. The three approaches are examined using four cross-national, time-series operationalizations of democracy.
Samuel Huntington's influential book, The Third Wave (1991), introduced the concept of "waves of democratization" to the social-scientific lexicon (Chang et al. 1996; Diamond 1996; Jaggers and Gurr 1995; Liu 1993; Markoff 1996; Rowen 1995; Schraeder 1994; Shin 1994). Although the concept has been widely adopted, it is not clear just what it refers to. I wish to describe three general approaches to the concept and to operationalize these approaches with data from the past two centuries.
Approach #1: Level of Democracy
Perhaps the most common approach to "waves of democratization" involves statements about the general level of democracy in the world. Ups and downs in this global level correspond, in this approach, to "waves." This approach is particularly useful for research on the global zeitgeist; for example, the study of the "democratic peace" might seek correlations between the number of wars in the world at any given moment and world democraticness. Similarly, studies of international regimes might use the level of democracy in the world as an indicator of global norms.
This approach to the concept of "waves" carries with it the implication of perpetual oscillation. Whether the analogy refers to electromagnetic waves or to waves in water, the image suggests that upward surges in levels of democracy will inevitably be balanced by future downward cycles. Waves are defined by the fact of their imminent demise. If they did not reverse or crash, they would not be waves-we would have to abandon the metaphor. This view is a welcome correction to the rosy-tinted vision of democracy as advancing inexorably, and to teleologies that view temporary circumstances as the end of history. But the image of the wave may go too far in the other direction, implying that the reverse wave, the destruction of democracy, is natural and inevitable. Why bother supporting democratization if...