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Abstract
The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) can be used as a quantification of the local predictability limit of chaotic systems. In this study, the phase-spatial structure of the local predictability limit over the Lorenz-63 system is investigated. It is found that the inner and outer rims of each regime of the attractor have a high probability of a longer than average local predictability limit, while the center part is the opposite. However, the distribution of the local predictability limit is nonuniformly organized, with adjacent points sometimes showing quite distinct error growth. The source of local predictability is linked to the local dynamics, which is related to the region in the phase space and the duration on the current regime.
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Details
1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; College of Earth Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
2 College of Global Change and Earth System Science (GCESS), Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
3 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; College of Atmospheric Sciences, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China
4 Global Systems Division, Earth System Research Laboratory/Oceanic and Atmospheric Research/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA
5 Fujian Meteorological Observatory, Fuzhou, China