Abstract

The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) can be used as a quantification of the local predictability limit of chaotic systems. In this study, the phase-spatial structure of the local predictability limit over the Lorenz-63 system is investigated. It is found that the inner and outer rims of each regime of the attractor have a high probability of a longer than average local predictability limit, while the center part is the opposite. However, the distribution of the local predictability limit is nonuniformly organized, with adjacent points sometimes showing quite distinct error growth. The source of local predictability is linked to the local dynamics, which is related to the region in the phase space and the duration on the current regime.

Details

Title
Quantifying local predictability of the Lorenz system using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent
Author
Xiao-Wei, HUAI 1 ; LI, Jian-Ping 2 ; Rui-Qiang DING 3 ; FENG, Jie 4 ; De-Qiang, LIU 5 

 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; College of Earth Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China 
 College of Global Change and Earth System Science (GCESS), Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China 
 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; College of Atmospheric Sciences, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China 
 Global Systems Division, Earth System Research Laboratory/Oceanic and Atmospheric Research/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, USA 
 Fujian Meteorological Observatory, Fuzhou, China 
End page
378
Publication year
2017
Publication date
Sep 2017
Publisher
KeAi Publishing Communications Ltd
ISSN
16742834
e-ISSN
23766123
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2215247817
Copyright
© 2017 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.