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Companies operating in industries that are subject to fundamental changes caused by innovations in science or technology search for ways to anticipate future business and scientific or technological developments so that they can react to them in profitable ways. Using the example of the pharmaceutical industry, which is currently moving from chemically based medications to targeted treatments based on biology, we demonstrate a process for forecasting how the future will look a decade from now. Illustrating the process with a variety of studies already done on this industry, we provide a strategy for mapping the future as well as an analysis of the strengths and limitations of our planning approach. We argue that this approach is applicable to both science-based and technology-based industries.
Executives and strategists always want to know how their industry is evolving and what it will look like for their chosen strategic horizon, whether it be 2, 3, 5, or even 10 years, in the belief that armed with such knowledge they can time their investments in new products, services, and infrastructure to coincide with the arrival of business opportunities. The latter, in particular, must not be overlooked in industries with fast-evolving science. In the pharmaceutical industry, for instance, if management in a company plans to move from smaller molecular weight products to biologies, which are typically larger and less stable molecules, a whole new way of manufacturing must be defined. This involves identification of the investment costs and associated lead times needed to accomplish the transformation, and thus must become part of overall strategic planning. Over the past three decades, numerous strategists and futurists have developed various ways of attempting to create planning methodologies. But, as historians and philosophers have long reminded us, precisely predicting the future is impossible, because we cannot account for all the unpredictable events that may interrupt a forecast or vision. In recent years, we have seen stunning examples of the disruptive effects of negative events on the future of various industries. The tragedy of 9/11, for instance, fundamentally altered subsequent patterns of behavior in telecommunications, finance, and foreign policy, and even led to two wars. SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), another example of an occurrence with seriously negative impact, disrupted business and personal travel...