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Eur J Crim Policy Res (2009) 15:201224 DOI 10.1007/s10610-008-9097-0
Dieter Dlling & Horst Entorf & Dieter Hermann & Thomas Rupp
Published online: 3 March 2009# Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009
Abstract It is supposed that threats of punishment deter potential criminals from committing crimes. The correctness of this theory is, however, questionable. Numerous empirical investigations have come to different results. In this article a meta-analysis is described which tries to find out the reasons for the different findings. First evaluations indicate that the methods of research have an influence on the results and that a possible deterring effect of the penal law can only be covered reasonably with a very differentiating model. Not all criminal acts can be influenced by deterrence. It appears that the most significant deterrent effects can be achieved in cases of minor crime, administrative offences and infringements of informal social norms. In cases of homicide, on the other hand, the meta-analysis does not indicate that the death penalty has a deterrent effect. According to the results, the validity of the deterrence hypothesis must be looked at in a differenciated manner.
Keywords Deterrence . General prevention . Meta-analysis
Introduction
A lot of legal systems assume that threats of punishment deter potential criminals from committing crimes (see Buikhuisen 1974). Thoughts on this theory of the general prevention effect of deterrence may be found inter alia in the writings of Cesare Beccaria
D. Dlling (*)
University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany e-mail: [email protected]
H. Entorf
University of Frankfurt on the Main, Frankfurt, Germany
D. Hermann
University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
T. Rupp
Technical University of Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
Is Deterrence Effective? Results of a Meta-Analysis of Punishment
202 D. Dlling et al.
(1766), Jeremy Bentham (1823) and Johann Anselm Feuerbach (1799). More recently, Gary S. Becker (1968) and Isaac Ehrlich (1973) have transferred the theory to the measurable level of mathematical-economic models (Becker) and econometric models (Ehrlich).
There exist numerous empirical studies on the general preventive effect of deterrence in the criminal law that operate with differing methods. However, not only the methods used in the investigation vary considerably, but the studies produce widely different results (see Eisele 1999).
Meta-analyses of deterrence studies have so far only been partially carried out and restrict...