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A quantitative analysis of the drug discovery potential of the pharmaceutical industry leads to the conclusion that the industry is facing an innovation deficit which will be severe enough to incite further consolidations within the industry. This opening sentence, from a 1996 article1
by Jrgen Drews president of research at Roche at the time and Stefan Ryser, is again, regrettably, seeming highly prescient. At the end of January, it was announced that Pfizer will acquire Wyeth for ~US$68 billion, consolidating Pfizers position as the largest pharmaceutical company for the next few years.
The rationale from Pfizers perspective seems clear. Perhaps most significantly, in the next 2 years, it is due to face generic competition to its best-selling drug Lipitor, which had reported global sales of ~$12 billion in 2008, representing more than a quarter of Pfizers total prescription pharmaceutical sales. With no prospect of replacing the resultant loss of revenue with sales from new products, analysts forecasts indicated that Pfizer would plummet from its current industry-leading position in terms of sales, providing a strong drive to purchase...