Content area
Full text
Introduction
The scenario is the archetypical product of futures studies because it embodies the central principles of the discipline:
- It is vitally important that we think deeply and creatively about the future, or else we run the risk of being surprised and unprepared.
- At the same time, the future is uncertain so we must prepare for multiple plausible futures, not just the one we expect to happen.
Scenarios contain the stories of these multiple futures, from the expected to the wildcard, in forms that are analytically coherent and imaginatively engaging. A good scenario grabs us by the collar and says, "Take a good look at this future. This could be your future. Are you going to be ready?"
As consultants and organizations have come to recognize the value of scenarios, they have also latched onto one scenario technique - a very good one in fact - as the default for all their scenario work. That technique is the Royal Dutch Shell/Global Business Network (GBN) matrix approach, created by Pierre Wack in the 1970s and popularized by [76] Schwartz (1991) in the Art of the Long View and [82] Van der Heijden (1996) in Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversations . In fact, [58] Millett (2003, p. 18) calls it the "gold standard of corporate scenario generation."
While the GBN technique is an excellent one, it is regrettable that it has so swept the field that most practitioners do not even know that it is only one of more than two dozen techniques for developing scenarios. There are so many approaches and techniques that go by the term scenario that [58] Millett (2003, p. 16) says that "resolving the confusion over the definitions and methods of scenarios is the first necessary step to bring the value of scenario thinking and development to a wider audience." A number of overview pieces have been published recently that respond to Millett's requirements. First, we will address the confusions and definitions, describe our research approach, then review the overview pieces, and finally move into the analysis of the specific scenario techniques.
Confusions
This section addresses three primary confusions in the scenario literature[1] :
Perhaps the most common confusion when discussing scenarios is equating scenario development with scenario planning....