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THIS FEATURE EXAMINES THE DEMOGRAPHIC, ECONOMIC AND MARKET TRENDS THAT AFFECT TRAVEL DEMAND. MOTORIZED MOBILITY GREW TREMENDOUSLY DURING THE 20TH CENTURY, BUT THE FACTORS THAT CAUSED THIS GROWTH ARE UNLIKELY TO CONTINUE. PER CAPITA VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND MILEAGE LIKELY WILL DECLINE IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES; DEMAND FOR ALTERNATIVES SUCH AS WALKING AND PUBLIC TRANSIT IS INCREASING.
INTRODUCTION
According to predictions made a few decades ago, current travel should involve self-driving automobiles, jetpacks and flying cars, with space transport a common occurrence.
In 1961, Weekend Magazine predicted that the year 2000 "will be the age of press-button transportation. Rocket belts will increase a man's stride to 30 feet, and bus-type helicopters will travel along crowded air skyways. There will be moving plastic-covered pavements, individual hoppicopters, and 200 miles per hour (mph) monorail trains operating in all large cities. The family car will be soundless, vibrationless and self-propelled thermostatically. The engine will be smaller than a typewriter. Cars will travel overland on an 18-inch air cushion."1
Although several new modes developed during the first half of the 20th century, including the automobile (in this feature, "automobile" refers to all motorized personal vehicles, including cars, vans, light trucks and sport utility vehicles), freight truck and airplane, transport innovations have been more modest during the last few decades, marginally improving but not displacing existing modes.
Transportation professionals help create the future. It is important that the overall context of long-term planning decisions is considered. Good planning does not consist of simply extrapolating past trends. It requires that we understand the fundamental conditions that cause trends.
This feature examines various demographic and economic trends that affect travel demand and their implications for transport planning ("travel demand" refers to the amount and type of travel people would consume at a given price and quality).
20TH-CENTURY VEHICLE TRAVEL TRENDS
This section summarizes how transportation infrastructure, vehicle ownership and use developed during the 20th century.
Transportation Infrastructure
Several new transport modes were developed during the 20th century, including highways, airports and containerized freight systems. At the start of the century, most roads were unpaved. Roadway mileage and quality increased tremendously during the first half of the century, culminating in the Interstate Highway System. Since that system was virtually completed in the 1980s, there...