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One of the most dramatic features of the Middle East today is the massive mobility of people across boundaries. The events of 1973--the oil price increase and its aftermath--unleashed large-scale investments in the Gulf and other oil-rich regions, pulling in labor from all parts of the Middle East and, more recently, from outside the region. Today, over a decade later, there are strong signs that this mobility is creating new problems for sending and receiving countries alike; some countries are even forced into conflict that could lead to war. The periodic angry accusations and rebuttals between Libya and Tunisia, or Libya and Egypt, in each instance threatening military action, often threaten new cycles of violence in a region where violence is hardly in short supply. At first glance the issues appear simple enough: it is generally believed that Colonel Quaddafi is being obstreperous once again. But beyond periodical Libyan volatility lies a deeper economic explanation that is also only partially correct, namely, that declining oil prices are slowing investments in the region, which in turn is reducing the demand for migrant workers. Return migration is thus a "normal" response to the economics at hand. That too captures part of the story, but certainly not enough to describe the contemporary demographic landscape of the Middle East.
The net impact of cross-border mobility is that both senders and receivers are regarding manpower as their primary problem. Perceptions differ, of course, but the salience remains. For example, Libya's aborted war with Tunisia several years ago may be a preview of things to come, but a negotiated outcome may also be possible. In taking then a strong stance, Tunisia was essentially saying that Libya cannot unilaterally decide the fate of its foreign labor and that the sovereignty of the Tunisian government extends to its nationals in Libya; further, that the sovereignty of the Libyans, even in their own territory, is not absolute.
All this is new in the Middle East, and certainly new among the Arab states. None have confronted so far the true dimensions of the internationalization of their manpower, or what can be done to reduce the probability of confrontation and violence. The migration issue, however complex, is only one side of the coin. The other,...