On unpredictable ship rolling in irregular seas

Abstract

Indirectly excited large amplitude roll motions of container ships and roll-on/roll-off ferries represent a considerable threat to goods and life in modern navigation. Especially when ships are heading into rough seas, or sailing away from following seas, large roll responses have been reported to occur in an unpredictable, random way. We approach this topic from deterministic bifurcation theory and generalize the analysis by characterizing the seaway as narrow band stochastic processes. It is demonstrated how the intermittent behavior of zero and large amplitude motions in irregular seas is related to the deterministic bifurcation scenario. Further, we identify parameter regions of intermittent roll motions and show how the on-/off intermittency can be characterized by the probability density function of the response amplitude.