U. S. Economy Breaks Recovery Cycle Record-But Are Cracks Starting To Appear?

Abstract

[...]Sarah House, Wells Fargo's senior economist, predicts a maximum 0.4 percent CPI inflation hike if the President's 25 percent tariff on Chinese imports is put into effect. The St. Louis Fed predicts a 2.8 percent decline in productivity growth between 2020 and 2040 as baby boomers retire and take their human capital with them. Since the first quarter of 2018, new business formation has reversed course after eight years of steady growth. RATES EXPECTED TO HOLD The market expects the Fed to keep the key interest rate steady in June but reduce rates in July amid restrained inflation and declining new job creation. Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Fannie Mae = Fannie Mae, Washington, D.C.; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; ICIMS=Holmdel, New Jersey; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy.com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D.C.; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; S&P = Standard & Poor's, New York, New York; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C.; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.