Content area
Full Text
Sept. 11, 2001, and Dec. 7, 1941, are dates seared in blood and memory for Western New Yorkers and all America.
No warning came for either the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor that launched the nation into World War II or the attacks in New York City and Washington, D.C., that raised terrorism to a chilling new level.
But while both were sneak attacks, the similarity fades after that when the economic aftermath of the 1941 event is compared to the perceived impact of the recent one, some experts on the economy and American history say.
"This is war - a full-scale serious attack on the United States of America and its well-being. And it bears a great parallel to 1941," said Canisius history Professor J. David Valaik.
But there are some obvious differences, especially in what Valaik and Hugh Johnson, a Buffalo native who is chief investment officer of First Albany Corp., think what the impact of the economy will be.
Pearl Harbor led to a record military buildup and put the nation on an around-theclock war footing that brought full employment, rationing, and industry's total concentration on making guns, tanks, planes and other weapons. Nothing that allconsuming is expected this time.
"Undoubtedly, though, there will be a noticeable effect," said Johnson. One possibility: The nation's already struggling economy could be thrown into recession.
"There's no question this will have some impact on commerce. Whenever you impair the transportation system as clearly as has happened, it's going to have a measurable economic impact for 30 days at least. After that, I can't guess," Johnson said.
The economy before the attacks already was flirting with recession.
The second quarter's Gross Domestic Product is likely to be revised downward to a minus...