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Abstract-In recent years, Chinese film market has been growing rapidly. The film industry has become an important growth point of the Chinese economy. Due to the fact that the domestic film market is immature and complex, audiences' tastes are fickle at the same time, the return on investment ratio has historically been elusive. Film box office prediction can provide certain reference for investment evaluation before the film is released and reduce risks to film investors, which has great market potential. This study explored the relationship between film box office and related factors through multiple linear regression model, and determined three factors that have the most significant influence on the film box office, namely director, actor and film schedule. Experimental results demonstrate that the accuracy of the model reached 84.64%, which means such a model is feasible in the application of film box office prediction.
Index Terms-Film box office prediction; multiple linear regression; film investment
I. RESEARCH BACKGROUND
CHINESE film market has experienced a decade of rapid development. With the huge market of more than 60 billion RMB, the number of film screens firmly ranking the first in the world, and the increasing number of moviegoers, more and more people noticed the huge potential of the Chinese film market China's film market develops rapidly by virtue of its huge population. In last few years, films with box office over billions have appeared every year. According to PWC's Percepectives from the Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2019-2023, China had the largest number of film ticket sales around the world in 2015, however, due to lower average ticket prices than the United States, China's overall film market value is smaller than that of the United States, ranking second in the world[1]. A total of 334 films were released on the Chinese mainland in 2018, of which 240 were made in China, with box office ranging from thousands of dollars to billions of dollars. Only a handful of films earn more than they cost to make, and most of them lose money. According to the data compiled by China Business Research Institute, China produced a total of 1,082 films in 2018, not including unknown documentaries and student works. How to choose films worthy of investment from a large...