Estimating Prospects of Russian Foreign Trade under Crisis: Sanctions and Countersanctions

Abstract

Based on econometric modeling, we proved the good relationship between foreign trade turnover and trade balance with the GDP of the Russian Federation. We identified the varying opinions of the Russian and foreign scholars on the impact of sanctions and countersanctions on the Russian economy. Based on the data on the absolute values of the trade turnover, export, import, and trade balance of Russia from 2010 to 2018, we revealed the positive dynamics of these indices, despite their negative values in 2014-2016. This allowed making a conclusion that the overall results of imposing sanctions and countersanctions for the Russian trade turnover and trade balance is rather positive than negative. This refutes the statements of western politicians, representatives of their subordinate international organizations, and some Russian and foreign scholars about the definitely negative role of sanctions and countersanctions. As a result, it is proposed to review the prospects of imposing additional countersanctions on western countries, which would allow developing the non-food sectors of the Russian economy.