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In the past 15-20 years, advances in observing systems, operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, and forecaster tools and supporting technology have enabled the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to make more accurate tropical cyclone forecasts, extend forecast lead times, and provide an expanded product suite. This period was not without its challenges, however, and significant limitations in forecast accuracy remain. In particular, a continuously growing coastal population, sometimes-inadequate intensity forecast skill, and- despite abundant awareness - storm surge, remain as factors that make tropical cyclones a tremendous threat to life. Our brief synopsis of the state of NHC tropical cyclone forecasting highlights operational improvements of the past two decades, discusses capabilities and limitations, and looks at opportunities to address such challenges.
The advent of microwave quency observations from lites and aircraft, Doppler...