Content area

Abstract

In this paper, we proposed a novel automated model, called Vulnerability Index for Population at Risk (VIPAR) scores, to identify rare populations for their future shooting victimizations. Likewise, the focused deterrence approach identifies vulnerable individuals and offers certain types of treatments (e.g., outreach services) to prevent violence in communities. The proposed rule-based engine model is the first AI-based model for victim prediction. This paper aims to compare the list of focused deterrence strategy with the VIPAR score list regarding their predictive power for the future shooting victimizations. Drawing on the criminological studies, the model uses age, past criminal history, and peer influence as the main predictors of future violence. Social network analysis is employed to measure the influence of peers on the outcome variable. The model also uses logistic regression analysis to verify the variable selections. Our empirical results show that VIPAR scores predict 25.8% of future shooting victims and 32.2% of future shooting suspects, whereas focused deterrence list predicts 13% of future shooting victims and 9.4% of future shooting suspects. The model outperforms the intelligence list of focused deterrence policies in predicting the future fatal and non-fatal shootings. Furthermore, we discuss the concerns about the presumption of innocence right.

Details

1009240
Title
A Rule-Based Model for Victim Prediction
Publication title
arXiv.org; Ithaca
Publication year
2022
Publication date
Mar 7, 2022
Section
Computer Science
Publisher
Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
Source
arXiv.org
Place of publication
Ithaca
Country of publication
United States
University/institution
Cornell University Library arXiv.org
e-ISSN
2331-8422
Source type
Working Paper
Language of publication
English
Document type
Working Paper
Publication history
 
 
Online publication date
2022-03-08
Milestone dates
2020-01-06 (Submission v1); 2020-01-07 (Submission v2); 2022-03-07 (Submission v3)
Publication history
 
 
   First posting date
08 Mar 2022
ProQuest document ID
2334886688
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/working-papers/rule-based-model-victim-prediction/docview/2334886688/se-2?accountid=208611
Full text outside of ProQuest
Copyright
© 2022. This work is published under http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Last updated
2022-09-22
Database
ProQuest One Academic