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Closing Lockheed Martin's [LMT] F-22 Raptor production line outright and then reactivating the dormant line at a later time would cost the Air Force between $225 million and $720 million, with the most likely figure close to $450 million, RAND estimates in new study conducted on behalf of the service.
The cost estimates of this shutdown-restart scenario vary due to factors such as how much funding would actually be required to preserve tooling, retain the workforce, and requalify parts suppliers, RAND concludes.
This scenario would be the most expensive of three models that RAND explored for the Air Force to acquire 75 additional F-22s beyond the current 183-aircraft program of record. Continuing F-22 manufacture after 183, but at reduced rates--referred to as "warm" production--would be comparatively less expensive. But the most economical method would be to keep assembling F-22s at the current rate of 20 per year until all 75 are built, RAND reports.
Indeed, RAND estimates that it would cost the Air Force $19 billion to acquire the 75 jets under the shutdown-restart model, $17.7 billion under warm production, and $13.7 billion if Lockheed Martin keeps churning out the jets at its assembly facility in Marietta, Ga., at the current rate. The average flyway unit cost of the 75 aircraft under each scenario would be $200 million, $170 million, and $145 million, respectively, RAND finds.
As a note of comparison, the current F-22 program of record has a total estimated cost of $64.5 billion, according to the Pentagon's most recent selected acquisition reports issued in April for the period of October through December 2007.
Under the shutdown-restart model, no new orders would be placed in FY '10 or FY '11. Production activities would resume in FY '12...