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Abstract
Los proyectos de desarrollo de nuevos productos (PDNP) enfrentan riesgos que afectan su programación. En este artículo, el propósito fue desarrollar un modelo de optimización para resolver el RCPSP en PDNP y obtener una línea-base robusta para el proyecto. El modelo propuesto incluye tres etapas: identificación de riesgos, estimación de la duración de las actividades y resolución de un programa lineal entero. Dos versiones del modelo fueron creadas con el fin de compararlas y seleccionar la mejor versión. La primera versión utiliza un método para estimar la duración de las actividades basado en el valor esperado del impacto de los riesgos, y la segunda, un método basado en el proceso de análisis de riesgos críticos. Finalmente, las dos versiones del modelo fueron aplicadas a un caso de estudio y la mejor versión fue identificada empleando un indicador de robustez que analiza los tiempos de inicio de las líneas-base generadas.
New product development projects (NPDP) face different risks that may affect the scheduling. In this article, the purpose was to develop an optimization model to solve the RCPSP in NPDP and obtain a robust baseline for the project. The proposed model includes three stages: the identification of the project’s risks, an estimation of activities’ duration, and the resolution of an integer linear program. Two versions of the model were designed and compared in order to select the best one. The first version uses a method to estimate the activities’ duration based on the expected value of the impact of the risks and the second version uses a method based on the judgmental risk analysis process. Finally, the two version of the model were applied to a case study and the best version of the model was identified using a robustness indicator that analyses the start times of the baselines generated.
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