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1. Introduction
Prostate cancer (PCa) is the second most common male malignant tumor [1]. The mortality of PCa patients was reported as 40% over ten years, and the overall biological recurrence rate was 30.4% [2, 3]. PCa has strong heterogeneity. Its incidence is affected by factors such as age, ethnicity, and genetics. Tumor biological characteristics and prognosis vary greatly among individuals. Some slow-growing, weakly aggressive, low- and medium-risk tumors do not affect life expectancy [4]. Active local treatment of such patients may increase the occurrence of complications and affect quality of life; instead, active monitoring and other treatment methods can be adopted [5]. By contrast, other prostate cancer patients display high degrees of invasiveness and rapid progress. Therefore, it is important to stratify PCa patients with reasonable risk according to clinical and pathological parameters and to make clinical decisions based on life expectancy, health status, and subjective desires, then to formulate individualized treatment and follow-up plans. After radical prostatectomy, prostate cancer patients were treated with antiandrogenic drugs, and the PSA level was monitored trimonthly. Although the pathological stage and Gleason score were lower during surgery in patients, PSA increased quickly after surgery. Therefore, we urgently need an independent prognostic prediction method to assist us in grouping high- and low-risk patients in different stages and guide medication such as antiandrogens.
Advances in high-throughput sequencing and open source databases of tumors such as TCGA (the Cancer Genome Atlas) have enabled us to investigate the relationship between genes and prognosis. For example, HOXB5, GPC2, PGA5, and AMBN were used to establish an overall survival scoring model with
In this article, we have constructed a prediction method for the prognostic risk of prostate cancer patients, which is more accurate than TPSA. The prediction method was applied in different pathological stages and Gleason score subgroups and can effectively distinguish patients with different prognostic risk, providing a new method for actively monitoring prostate cancer patients.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Sample Source
The gene expression matrix and clinical follow-up information of PCa were obtained from TCGA (the Cancer Genome Atlas) database (https://www.cancer.gov/) [10]. In total, 547 samples were applied to this study, including 52 nontumor tissue samples and 495 tumor tissue samples. The days of new tumor events were considered DFS (disease-free survival) data. Patients were randomly assigned to a train set (
2.2. Prognosis-Related Gene Selection
The variation genes in each sample was identified as follows: the median and variance of the expression levels of a gene were greater than 20% of all genes. Subsequently, the relevance level between gene expression and disease-free survival status was evaluated in the train set. Univariable Cox regression analysis between gene expression and the disease-free survival state was performed using R with the “Survival” package [14]. The prognosis-related genes were determined with
2.3. Pathway and Function Enrichment Analysis
The Database for Annotation, Visualization and Integrated Discovery (DAVID, v6.8) is a function enrichment tool that supplies biological explanations of gene lists and proteomic studies obtained from high-throughput sequencing [17]. Enrichment analysis for Gene Ontology [18] and KEGG pathway [19] was performed using DAVID, v6.8. Histogram was performed using the “ggplot2” package in R to show results [20].
2.4. Robust Selection of Prognostic-Related Genes
To establish the most reliable prognostic assessment model with the lowest degree of freedom, the robust principle and AICs were used to identify the best prognostic-related genes. The Rbsurv package in R was used to conduct robust likelihood-based survival analysis among survival-associated genes with the parameter as follows:
2.5. Risk Scoring System Establishment and Validation
CMU5 was established using the best prognosis-related genes. The estimated regression coefficients of each gene were calculated using multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression with the method “enter.”
3. Results
3.1. Identification Prognosis-Related Genes
The overall process is presented in Figure 1. In total, 2707 protein coding genes were confirmed as prognosis-related genes using Cox proportional hazard regression with
Table 1
Univariable Cox regression of top 20 genes related to DFS survival.
Gene symbol | HR | HR.95L | HR.95H | |
PLEK2 | 0.490 | 0.391 | 0.614 | 5.80 |
SPRED3 | 2.586 | 1.852 | 3.611 | 2.45 |
TACR2 | 0.567 | 0.459 | 0.699 | 1.14 |
RSPH10B | 2.301 | 1.687 | 3.138 | 1.42 |
TRIM73 | 2.033 | 1.549 | 2.670 | 3.22 |
AMZ1 | 1.891 | 1.481 | 2.414 | 3.23 |
FA2H | 0.588 | 0.479 | 0.721 | 3.24 |
ARHGAP33 | 2.373 | 1.694 | 3.324 | 4.94 |
CPNE9 | 1.472 | 1.263 | 1.716 | 7.23 |
C20orf203 | 1.564 | 1.309 | 1.868 | 8.63 |
DPP4 | 0.699 | 0.605 | 0.807 | 1.01 |
ASIC4 | 1.641 | 1.340 | 2.010 | 1.69 |
CCDC180 | 1.950 | 1.483 | 2.564 | 1.71 |
SEC61A2 | 3.051 | 1.925 | 4.837 | 2.09 |
AL157935.2 | 2.018 | 1.509 | 2.698 | 2.15 |
MXD3 | 1.933 | 1.471 | 2.539 | 2.23 |
KMT5C | 2.749 | 1.808 | 4.180 | 2.24 |
SOX8 | 1.804 | 1.412 | 2.305 | 2.35 |
FAM72D | 1.751 | 1.378 | 2.224 | 4.52 |
HR: hazard rate; DFS: disease-free survival.
[figures omitted; refer to PDF]
3.2. Identification of Robust Prognosis-Related Genes
To generate an optimal model with survival associated genes that were selected robustly, we selected 20 genes with the largest values of negative log-likelihoods. We obtained 20 prognosis-related gene signatures based on these 20 genes. The first model was generated using gene A with the largest value of negative log-likelihoods; the second model was generated using A+B, with B being the gene with the largest value of negative log-likelihoods except for that of A. The third model was generated by A+B+C, and others. The AICs [27] were calculated for each signature. The signature with the lowest AICs was selected, and it was considered to be the most reliable and feasible model with the minimum degree of freedom. The result is shown in Table 2, where the genes in the optimal signature are marked as (
Table 2
The best prognosis-related model results selected by “Rbsurv” package in R.
Order | Gene | nloglik | AICs | Selected |
0 | 0 | 275.87 | 551.73 | |
1 | TACR2 | 261.70 | 525.41 | |
2 | FAM72D | 255.02 | 514.03 | |
3 | PLEK2 | 251.31 | 508.62 | |
4 | FA2H | 248.07 | 504.15 | |
5 | ARHGAP33 | 243.38 | 496.76 | |
6 | TRIM74 | 242.55 | 497.11 | |
7 | TRIM73 | 242.03 | 498.05 | |
8 | SCNN1D | 242.01 | 500.02 | |
9 | KRTAP5-1 | 241.66 | 501.32 | |
10 | CCDC180 | 240.98 | 501.97 | |
11 | MXD3 | 240.97 | 503.94 | |
12 | GPC2 | 239.75 | 503.5 | |
13 | SSPO | 239.74 | 505.48 | |
14 | CPLX1 | 239.59 | 507.19 | |
15 | AL157935.2 | 237.49 | 504.99 | |
16 | SOX8 | 236.62 | 505.24 | |
17 | FGF17 | 233.77 | 501.53 | |
18 | SPRED3 | 233.21 | 502.42 | |
19 | SEC61A2 | 232.82 | 503.63 |
AIC: Akaike information criterion score; nloglik: negative log-likelihood.
[figures omitted; refer to PDF]
[figures omitted; refer to PDF]
3.3. Risk Score Formula Establishment
To determine the relationship between signature and prognosis status, we built the risk score formula CMU5 using Cox proportional hazard regression with the method “enter”:
[figures omitted; refer to PDF]
[figures omitted; refer to PDF]
Table 3
Univariable Cox regression of age Gleason score and stage.
Term | Count | HR (95% CI) | |
Age | |||
<60 | 121 | 1 | |
≥60 | 153 | 0.821 (0.491–1.373) | 0.450 |
Gleason score | |||
6 | 20 | 1 | |
7 | 122 | 0.740 (0.187–2.938) | 0.632 |
8 | 29 | 2.049 (0.647–6.486) | 0.268 |
9–10 | 81 | 2.820 (1.243–6.397) | 0.072 |
| 22 | ||
Stage | |||
Normal | 22 | 1 | |
II | 78 | 3.714 (0.565–24.40) | 0.172 |
III | 164 | 3.249 (1.764–6.538) | 0.003 |
IV | 5 | 12.830 (1.253–131.327) | 0.032 |
NA | 5 | ||
Risk | |||
Low | 168 | 1 | |
High | 106 | 6.604 (3.842–11.351) | <0.001 |
CI: confidence interval; HR: hazard ratio; DFS: disease-free-survival.
3.4. Risk Score Formula Evaluation
To evaluate the risk score formula and threshold score, the complete set was applied to evaluate the results. The AUC of the complete set (547) was 0.768 (Figure 7(a)). Using the same cut-off point as 2.0559, the complete set was divided into the low-risk group and the high-risk groups. We found a significant survival risk difference (
[figures omitted; refer to PDF]
3.5. Test Set and External Data Validation
The AUC of the test set (273 samples) was 0.710 (Figure 8(a)). Using the cut-off point of 2.0559, the test set was divided into low-risk and high-risk groups. There was a significant survival risk difference (Figure 8(b)) (
[figures omitted; refer to PDF]
[figures omitted; refer to PDF]
3.6. GSEA
To investigate the changes of the pathway in the low-risk and high-risk groups, GSEA analysis was used. The results are shown in Figure 8. The homologous-recombination pathway, the DNA-replication pathway, the mismatch-repair pathway, the cell-cycle pathway, and the base excision repair pathway were significantly related to the high-risk group, suggesting an active cell proliferation process occurring in the high-risk group (Figures 9(a)–9(e)). In the low-risk group, the arginine and proline metabolism pathway, the butanoate-metabolism pathway, the glycosaminoglycan-degradation pathway, the propanoate-metabolism pathway, and the valine and isoleucine-degradation pathway were significantly enriched, suggesting that low metabolic levels might contribute to better prognosis compared with the high-risk group (Figures 9(f)–9(j)).
4. Discussion
PCa is the most common malignant tumor of the male genitourinary system. According to the 2018 GLOBOCAN statistics of the World Health Organization, the incidence of PCa ranks the second among all male malignancies worldwide, second only to lung cancer [28]. PSA testing is recommended for patients with a life expectancy of more than 10 years, and further risk assessment should be conducted for asymptomatic patients with normal DRE and a
With the maturity of bioinformatic analysis in recent years, there have appeared many methods to predict the risk of PCa based on gene expression. We summarize the existing prediction models and improve their shortcomings. Xu et al. built a prediction model of overall survival including four mRNA (
TACR2, FAM72D, PLEK2, FA2H, and ARHGAP33 were first proposed as independent predictors of PCa in this paper. We built the CMU5 score based on these five protein coding genes. We applied the days to new tumor events as the parameters of disease-free survival, which were related to tumor recurrence and another adverse events. The robust method was applied because it builds multiple gene models sequentially with survival-associated genes selected robustly. The risk score formula and the best cut-off point were both verified using the Kaplan–Meier curve and log-rank tests in the test and complete sets.
TACR2, PLEK2, and FA2H were considered protective factors in PCa. Tachykinin receptor 2 (TACR2), also called NK2R, is one of the family of genes that encodes receptors for tachykinins and interacts with G proteins and seven hydrophobic transmembrane regions. Tachykinins are modulators of the immune system, related to the generation, activation, development, and migration of immune cells [30]. Tachykinins also mediate T cell differentiation; Zhang et al. found that CD8+ T cells were significantly decreased after treatment with tachykinin antagonist CD8+ T cells which play crucial roles in cellular immunity, providing protection from tumor cell infiltration. Pleckstrin-2 (PLEK2) is associated with membrane-bound phosphatidylinositols generated by phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase. Bach et al. suggested that pleckstrin-2 binds to membrane-associated phosphatidylinositols regulated by PI3K, thereby promoting the actin cytoskeleton in lymphocyte spreading and immune synapse formation [31]. Fatty acid 2-hydroxylase (FA2H) was shown to play a crucial role in regulating hedgehog signaling and the suppression of gastric tumor growth. Downregulation of the hedgehog signaling pathway also suppressed PCa cell proliferation and invasion [32]. These findings suggest that TACR2, PLEK2, and FA2H provide protection from tumor invasion; they were applied as protective factors in our risk score method.
FAM72D and ARHGAP33 are risk factors for PCa. The family with sequence similarity 72 member D (FAM72D) is also known as GCUD2; it is a poor prognostic gene of myeloma and control cell proliferation and survival in the FOXM1 transcription factor network [33]. FAM72 paralogs are upregulated in tumor cells and are related to mitotic cell cycle genes that promote the formation of centrosomes and mitotic spindles and act as prognostic biomarkers for glioblastoma [34]. Rho GTPase activating protein 33 (ARHGAP33) is a high-affinity receptor for the brain-derived neurotrophic factor [35]. Chen et al. [36] suggested that ARHGAP9, 15, 18, 19, 25, and 30 were associated with breast cancer. To our best knowledge, ours is the first study to identify ARHGAP33 and PLEK2 as PCa prognosis factors. Nevertheless, the mechanisms underlying the effects of these genes on prognosis in PCa require further research.
In this study, we established a risk score called CMU5 that divides PCa patients into different groups, and we provided the disease-free survival prediction time in high-risk and low-risk groups. With the CMU5 score support, we can distinguish high-risk patients with low Gleason scores to provide patients with individualized treatment. The CMU5 score was verified to be reliable in two other external datasets. These data suggest that both CMU5 and the threshold value make sense in terms of disease-free survival time and status. Nevertheless, because of the limitations of our research methods, there was no in-depth study mechanism of action of the factors in the scoring model, and the scoring algorithm requires further verification based on basic science research.
5. Conclusions
We developed a five-gene signature for survival prediction in PCa patients from TCGA. A five-gene signature (TACR2, FAM72D, PLEK2, FA2H, and ARHGAP33) named CMU5, with genes selected robustly, was identified using the “Rbsurv” package. Based on the cut-off of 2.056, high-risk and low-risk groups were identified. Based on the verification of the benign nature and evaluation effect, the CMU5 score might have potential prognostic and therapeutic implications for PCa patients.
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the China Medical University Youth Backbone Support Program (QGZD2018029). We want to thank TCGA, GEO, and cBioPortal for the free usage.
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Abstract
Aim. In this paper, we aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction method using independent prognosis genes selected robustly in prostate cancer. Method. We considered 723 samples obtained from TCGA (the Cancer Genome Atlas), GSE46602, and GSE21032. Prostate cancer prognosis-related genes with
You have requested "on-the-fly" machine translation of selected content from our databases. This functionality is provided solely for your convenience and is in no way intended to replace human translation. Show full disclaimer
Neither ProQuest nor its licensors make any representations or warranties with respect to the translations. The translations are automatically generated "AS IS" and "AS AVAILABLE" and are not retained in our systems. PROQUEST AND ITS LICENSORS SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY WARRANTIES FOR AVAILABILITY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, NON-INFRINGMENT, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. Your use of the translations is subject to all use restrictions contained in your Electronic Products License Agreement and by using the translation functionality you agree to forgo any and all claims against ProQuest or its licensors for your use of the translation functionality and any output derived there from. Hide full disclaimer