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Abstract
Prospect theory is among the most influential frameworks in behavioural science, specifically in research on decision-making under risk. Kahneman and Tversky’s 1979 study tested financial choices under risk, concluding that such judgements deviate significantly from the assumptions of expected utility theory, which had remarkable impacts on science, policy and industry. Though substantial evidence supports prospect theory, many presumed canonical theories have drawn scrutiny for recent replication failures. In response, we directly test the original methods in a multinational study (n = 4,098 participants, 19 countries, 13 languages), adjusting only for current and local currencies while requiring all participants to respond to all items. The results replicated for 94% of items, with some attenuation. Twelve of 13 theoretical contrasts replicated, with 100% replication in some countries. Heterogeneity between countries and intra-individual variation highlight meaningful avenues for future theorizing and applications. We conclude that the empirical foundations for prospect theory replicate beyond any reasonable thresholds.
In a sample of over 4,000 participants from 19 countries, the core patterns from a highly influential study on behaviour and decision-making broadly replicate, with only minor exceptions and somewhat smaller effect sizes.
Details
; Alí Sonia 2
; Berge, Mari Louise 3 ; Bertoldo Giulia 4
; Bjørndal, Ludvig D 5
; Cortijos-Bernabeu Anna 6
; Davison, Clair 7
; Demić Emir 8 ; Esteban-Serna, Celia 9
; Friedemann Maja 10
; Gibson, Shannon P 11
; Jarke Hannes 12
; Karakasheva Ralitsa 13 ; Khorrami, Peggah R 14
; Kveder Jakob 15
; Andersen, Thomas Lind 16
; Lofthus, Ingvild S 5 ; McGill, Lucy 17
; Nieto, Ana E 18 ; Pérez Jacobo 18 ; Quail, Sahana K 19
; Rutherford, Charlotte 20 ; Tavera, Felice L 21 ; Tomat Nastja 15
; Reyn Chiara Van 22
; Većkalov Bojana 23
; Wang, Keying 9
; Yosifova Aleksandra 24 ; Papa, Francesca 25 ; Rubaltelli Enrico 26
; Linden Sander van der 27
; Folke Tomas 1
1 Columbia University, Department of Health Policy and Management, Mailman School of Public Health, New York, USA (GRID:grid.21729.3f) (ISNI:0000000419368729); University of Cambridge, Policy Research Group, Centre for Business Research, Judge Business School, Cambridge, UK (GRID:grid.5335.0) (ISNI:0000000121885934)
2 University of Sussex, School of Psychology, Brighton, UK (GRID:grid.12082.39) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 7590)
3 Eötvös Loránd University, Department of Personality & Health Psychology, Budapest, Hungary (GRID:grid.5591.8) (ISNI:0000 0001 2294 6276)
4 University of Padova, School of Psychology, Padova, Italy (GRID:grid.5608.b) (ISNI:0000 0004 1757 3470)
5 University of Oslo, Department of Psychology, Oslo, Norway (GRID:grid.5510.1) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 8921)
6 University of Barcelona, Department of Social Psychology and Quantitative Psychology, Faculty of Psychology, Barcelona, Spain (GRID:grid.5841.8) (ISNI:0000 0004 1937 0247)
7 University of St Andrews, School of Psychology and Neuroscience, St Andrews, UK (GRID:grid.11914.3c) (ISNI:0000 0001 0721 1626)
8 University of Belgrade, Department of Psychology, Faculty of Philosophy, Belgrade, Serbia (GRID:grid.7149.b) (ISNI:0000 0001 2166 9385)
9 University College London, Division of Psychology & Language Sciences, London, UK (GRID:grid.83440.3b) (ISNI:0000000121901201)
10 University of Oxford, Department of Experimental Psychology, Oxford, UK (GRID:grid.4991.5) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 8948)
11 Oxford Brookes University, Department of Psychology, Health & Professional Development, Faculty of Health & Life Sciences, Oxford, UK (GRID:grid.7628.b) (ISNI:0000 0001 0726 8331)
12 University of Cambridge, Policy Research Group, Centre for Business Research, Judge Business School, Cambridge, UK (GRID:grid.5335.0) (ISNI:0000000121885934)
13 University of Nottingham, Division of Psychiatry and Applied Psychology, Nottingham, UK (GRID:grid.4563.4) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 8868)
14 Columbia University, Department of Sociomedical Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, New York, USA (GRID:grid.21729.3f) (ISNI:0000000419368729)
15 University of Ljubljana, Department of Psychology, Faculty of Arts, Ljubljana, Slovenia (GRID:grid.8954.0) (ISNI:0000 0001 0721 6013)
16 Svendborg Municipality , PPR Svendborg, Svendborg, Denmark (GRID:grid.8954.0)
17 Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland (GRID:grid.8217.c) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 9705)
18 University Francisco de Vitoria, Department of Psychology, Madrid, Spain (GRID:grid.449795.2) (ISNI:0000 0001 2193 453X)
19 University of Oxford, Department of Social Policy & Intervention, Oxford, UK (GRID:grid.4991.5) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 8948)
20 University of Cambridge, Department of Psychology, Cambridge, UK (GRID:grid.5335.0) (ISNI:0000000121885934)
21 University of Cologne, Department of Psychology, Cologne, Germany (GRID:grid.6190.e) (ISNI:0000 0000 8580 3777)
22 KU Leuven, Department of Psychology and Educational Sciences, Leuven, Belgium (GRID:grid.5596.f) (ISNI:0000 0001 0668 7884)
23 University of Belgrade, Department of Psychology, Faculty of Philosophy, Belgrade, Serbia (GRID:grid.7149.b) (ISNI:0000 0001 2166 9385); University of Amsterdam, Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences, Amsterdam, The Netherlands (GRID:grid.7177.6) (ISNI:0000000084992262)
24 New Bulgarian University, Department of Cognitive Science and Psychology, Sofia, Bulgaria (GRID:grid.5507.7) (ISNI:0000 0001 0740 5199)
25 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, France (GRID:grid.36193.3e) (ISNI:0000000121590079)
26 University of Padova, JDM Lab, Department of Developmental Psychology and Socialization, Padova, Italy (GRID:grid.5608.b) (ISNI:0000 0004 1757 3470)
27 University of Cambridge, SDM Lab, Department of Psychology, Cambridge, UK (GRID:grid.5335.0) (ISNI:0000000121885934)