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The leading question of this paper is "How can one conceptualise influence warfare in order to simulate it?" The authors discuss the foundational aspects of theory and model of influence warfare by building a conceptual framework. The framework forms a prism with three axes along the DIME/PMESII/ASCOP dimensions. The DIME concept groups the many instruments of power a nation-state can muster into four elements: Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economics. PMESII describes the operational environment in six domains: Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, and Infrastructure. ASCOPE is used in COunterINsurgency (COIN) environments to analyse the cultural and human environment (the 'human terrain') and encompasses Areas, Structures, Capabilities, Organization, People, and Events. Additionally, the model reflects about aspects of Information Collection Requirements and Information Capabilities Requirements (ICR2)-hence DIME/PMESII/ASCOP/ICR2. The paper focuses on building a framework for the problem space of influence/information/hybrid warfare and introduces the idea of the perception field, understood as a molecule (gestalt or shape) of a story or narrative that influences an observer. This molecule can be drawn as a selection of vectors that can be built inside the DIME/PMESII/ASCOP prism. Each vector can be influenced by a shielding or shaping action. These ideas are explored in the context of an influence wargame.
Keywords: Modelling and Simulation, DIME, PMESII, ASCOPE, Wargaming, Serious Gaming, Gamification, Information Warfare, Influence Warfare, Weaponization of Everything, Perception
Introduction
We live in a world which people are dying due to the return of measles (The Economist 2018) after the spread of misinformation in social networks about the dangers of vaccinations (Gu et al. 2018). A growing group of people believe the world is flat (Burdick 2018). In this article, the authors use the scientific method to tackle the problem and phenomenon of 'influence' (and particularly such related concepts as 'weaponized information' (Pomerantsev & Weiss 2014), 'fake news' (Sample, Justice & Darraj 2019) and 'cognitive hacking' (Cybenko, Giani & Thompson 2002) in unconventional warfare/information warfare/hybrid warfare/operations in grey zones. The primary investigative framework, as described by North (2018), is as follows:
(1) Observe the world (primarily the phenomenon of hybrid warfare, information operations, and the weaponization of everything).
(2) Ask a question about what was seen (how would influence warfare work and how could one simulate it).
(3) Construct a...