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The autocratic regime that began forming in Venezuela under the late President Hugo Chávez two decades ago, and which has hardened under his successor Nicolás Maduro, has been by world standards both a typical and an unusual case of democratic backsliding. It has been typical in that the erosion of democracy has been led by the executive branch, and has happened via an incremental process that was ambiguous at first and has been polarizing all the way. It has been atypical, however, by dint of the sheer extent of the democratic backsliding that has taken place.1 The drop in level of "democratic-ness" from where Venezuela was a quarter-century ago to where it is now has been profound. It is hard to find recent cases of democratic decline anywhere in the world that can match Venezuela's fall, though perhaps Nicaragua under Daniel Ortega might bear comparison.
The process of democratic backsliding has not been without opposition. Maduro, who took office as designated successor when Chávez died of cancer in March 2013, has faced political resistance from opposition parties, the media, civil society, elements of the military, and international actors. He came to office not through a primary, but because Chávez had handpicked him to be the next leader of what Chávez called "Bolivarian socialism." Maduro won the April 2013 presidential election by a slim margin amid conditions of questionable electoral integrity, suggesting a weak mandate. He has presided over one of the most devastating national economic crises seen anywhere in modern times. His approval ratings have sagged consistently, while the opposition's electoral fortunes have surged, as exemplified by its victory in the 2015 National Assembly balloting. Massive street protests broke out in 2014 and 2017. Since 2019, Maduro's regime has had to cope with heightened financial sanctions levied by the United States, the European Union, and most countries of the Americas. These pressures, indeed, have been such that one could argue Maduro should have fallen by now.
The regime could still unravel at some point, but its seven-year survival is impressive. How has it managed to hang on? The most obvious answer is that Maduro has survived because he has turned more authoritarian. He inherited a semi-authoritarian regime, and he has hardened it. But to...