Content area

Abstract

The dense social contact networks and high mobility in congested urban areas facilitate the rapid transmission of infectious diseases. Typical mechanistic epidemiological models are either based on uniform mixing with ad-hoc contact processes or need real-time or archived population mobility data to simulate the social networks. However, the rapid and global transmission of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has led to unprecedented lockdowns at global and regional scales, leaving the archived datasets to limited use. While it is often hypothesized that population density is a significant driver in disease propagation, the disparate disease trajectories and infection rates exhibited by the different cities with comparable densities require a high-resolution description of the disease and its drivers. In this study, we explore the impact of the creation of containment zones on travel patterns within the city. Further, we use a dynamical network-based infectious disease model to understand the key drivers of disease spread at sub-kilometer scales demonstrated in the city of Ahmedabad, India, which has been classified as a SARS-CoV-2 hotspot. We find that in addition to the contact network and population density, road connectivity patterns and ease of transit are strongly correlated with the rate of transmission of the disease. Given the limited access to real-time traffic data during lockdowns, we generate road connectivity networks using open-source imageries and travel patterns from open-source surveys and government reports. Within the proposed framework, we then analyze the relative merits of social distancing, enforced lockdowns, and enhanced testing and quarantining mitigating the disease spread.

Details

1009240
Title
Assessing the Interplay between travel patterns and SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in realistic urban setting
Publication title
arXiv.org; Ithaca
Publication year
2020
Publication date
Sep 25, 2020
Section
Physics (Other); Quantitative Biology
Publisher
Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
Source
arXiv.org
Place of publication
Ithaca
Country of publication
United States
University/institution
Cornell University Library arXiv.org
e-ISSN
2331-8422
Source type
Working Paper
Language of publication
English
Document type
Working Paper
Publication history
 
 
Online publication date
2020-09-28
Milestone dates
2020-09-25 (Submission v1)
Publication history
 
 
   First posting date
28 Sep 2020
ProQuest document ID
2446782269
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/working-papers/assessing-interplay-between-travel-patterns-sars/docview/2446782269/se-2?accountid=208611
Full text outside of ProQuest
Copyright
© 2020. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Last updated
2020-09-29
Database
2 databases
  • Coronavirus Research Database
  • ProQuest One Academic