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Introduction
Russia's manipulation of the perceptions of its interference in the 2016 US presidential election is a remarkably successful instance of political and cognitive warfare. Through agile responsiveness to the emerging postelection political crisis in the United States, Moscow was able to leverage its campaign of interference in the US presidential election, disrupt the US political and administrative processes, and degrade the US strategic posture. Ironically, the US intelligence community has unwittingly played a central role in achieving and maximizing the Kremlin's disruption of US strategic coherence.
The Russian gambit draws on general weaknesses in Western parliamentary systems, none of which are unique to the US federal government. The effect of the Russian gambit resonates with a cynical view of liberal democracy that pervades the Russian establishment and forms a cornerstone of the regime's legitimacy. In fact, the success of Russia's postelection information campaign is as much a contribution to the internal legitimacy of the regime's rejection of liberal democratic values at home as it is a component of Russia's resurgence as a global superpower (cf. Hoffman 2019).
In this paper, we analyze the Kremlin's postelection gambit and draw some tentative conclusions about the vulnerability of Western liberal democracies to this maneuver—especially the susceptibility of intelligence communities to being unwittingly sucked into the fray to the ultimate benefit of their adversaries.
The Russian Gambit—A Preliminary Sketch
Russia's interference in the 2016 US presidential election is an instructive example of contemporary covert action. The extent of the effect that the Russian interference had on the election results is still debated, but there is good reason to believe the actual effect was minimal (McCombie, Uhlmann, and Morrison 2020).
Nonetheless, following the shock victory of Donald Trump, the Kremlin swiftly moved to leverage its interference in the election to great effect. In essence, by deftly exaggerating the perceived effect of its interference in the election, and the apparent extent of its collusion with Donald Trump, Moscow sought to discredit the electoral system and undermine the legitimacy of the election result while driving a wedge between the White House and Capitol Hill, and between the White House on the one hand, and the US intelligence and law enforcement communities on the other.
The Russian gambit leverages the trail of...