Abstract

Clinical features and natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ widely among different countries and during different phases of the pandemia. Here, we aimed to evaluate the case fatality rate (CFR) and to identify predictors of mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to three hospitals of Northern Italy between March 1 and April 28, 2020. All these patients had a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by molecular methods. During the study period 504/1697 patients died; thus, overall CFR was 29.7%. We looked for predictors of mortality in a subgroup of 486 patients (239 males, 59%; median age 71 years) for whom sufficient clinical data were available at data cut-off. Among the demographic and clinical variables considered, age, a diagnosis of cancer, obesity and current smoking independently predicted mortality. When laboratory data were added to the model in a further subgroup of patients, age, the diagnosis of cancer, and the baseline PaO2/FiO2 ratio were identified as independent predictors of mortality. In conclusion, the CFR of hospitalized patients in Northern Italy during the ascending phase of the COVID-19 pandemic approached 30%. The identification of mortality predictors might contribute to better stratification of individual patient risk.

Details

Title
Fatality rate and predictors of mortality in an Italian cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients
Author
Bellan Mattia 1 ; Patti, Giuseppe 1 ; Hayden Eyal 1 ; Azzolina Danila 2 ; Pirisi Mario 1 ; Acquaviva, Antonio 1 ; Aimaretti Gianluca 1 ; Aluffi, Valletti Paolo 1 ; Angilletta Roberto 3 ; Arioli, Roberto 1 ; Avanzi, Gian Carlo 1 ; Avino Gianluca 1 ; Balbo, Piero Emilio 4 ; Baldon Giulia 1 ; Baorda Francesca 5 ; Barbero Emanuela 1 ; Baricich Alessio 1 ; Barini Michela 4 ; Barone-Adesi Francesco 2 ; Battistini Sofia 1 ; Beltrame Michela 1 ; Bertoli Matteo 1 ; Bertolin, Stephanie 1 ; Bertolotti Marinella 3 ; Betti, Marta 3 ; Bobbio Flavio 4 ; Boffano Paolo 1 ; Boglione Lucio 5 ; Borrè Silvio 6 ; Brucoli Matteo 1 ; Calzaducca Elisa 1 ; Cammarata Edoardo 1 ; Cantaluppi Vincenzo 1 ; Cantello Roberto 1 ; Capponi, Andrea 4 ; Carriero Alessandro 1 ; Casciaro, Francesco Giuseppe 1 ; Castello, Luigi Mario 1 ; Ceruti Federico 1 ; Chichino Guido 3 ; Chirico Emilio 1 ; Cisari Carlo 1 ; Cittone, Micol Giulia 1 ; Colombo Crizia 1 ; Comi Cristoforo 5 ; Croce Eleonora 5 ; Daffara Tommaso 1 ; Danna Pietro 1 ; Della Corte Francesco 1 ; De Vecchi Simona 1 ; Dianzani Umberto 1 ; Di Benedetto Davide 1 ; Esposto Elia 1 ; Faggiano Fabrizio 2 ; Falaschi Zeno 1 ; Ferrante, Daniela 2 ; Ferrero, Alice 1 ; Gagliardi Ileana 1 ; Gaidano Gianluca; Galbiati, Alessandra 1 ; Gallo, Silvia 5 ; Garavelli, Pietro Luigi 4 ; Gardino, Clara Ada 1 ; Garzaro Massimiliano 1 ; Gastaldello, Maria Luisa 1 ; Gavelli Francesco 1 ; Gennari, Alessandra 1 ; Giacomini, Greta Maria 1 ; Giacone Irene 5 ; Giai Via Valentina 1 ; Giolitti Francesca 1 ; Gironi, Laura Cristina 1 ; Gramaglia Carla 1 ; Grisafi Leonardo 1 ; Inserra Ilaria 1 ; Invernizzi, Marco 1 ; Krengli Marco 1 ; Labella Emanuela 1 ; Landi, Irene Cecilia 1 ; Landi Raffaella 1 ; Leone Ilaria 1 ; Lio, Veronica 1 ; Lorenzini Luca 1 ; Maconi Antonio 3 ; Malerba, Mario 5 ; Manfredi, Giulia Francesca 1 ; Martelli, Maria 1 ; Marzari Letizia 1 ; Marzullo Paolo 1 ; Mennuni Marco 4 ; Montabone Claudia 5 ; Morosini Umberto 1 ; Mussa, Marco 3 ; Nerici Ilaria 1 ; Nuzzo Alessandro 1 ; Olivieri, Carlo 7 ; Padelli, Samuel Alberto 5 ; Panella Massimiliano 2 ; Parisini, Andrea 8 ; Paschè Alessio 1 ; Pau, Alberto 1 ; Pedrinelli, Anita Rebecca 1 ; Percivale Ilaria 1 ; Re, Roberta 7 ; Rigamonti, Cristina 1 ; Rizzi Eleonora 1 ; Rognoni, Andrea 4 ; Roveta Annalisa 3 ; Salamina Luigia 4 ; Santagostino Matteo 4 ; Saraceno Massimo 1 ; Savoia, Paola 1 ; Sciarra, Marco 3 ; Schimmenti, Andrea 3 ; Scotti Lorenza 2 ; Spinoni Enrico 1 ; Smirne Carlo 1 ; Tarantino, Vanessa 1 ; Tillio, Paolo Amedeo 5 ; Vaschetto Rosanna 1 ; Vassia Veronica 1 ; Zagaria Domenico 1 ; Zavattaro Elisa 4 ; Zeppegno Patrizia 1 ; Zottarelli Francesca 1 ; Sainaghi, Pier Paolo 1 

1  Università del Piemonte Orientale UPO, Department of Translational Medicine, Novara, Italy (GRID:grid.16563.37) (ISNI:0000000121663741); Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria “Maggiore Della Carita”, Novara, Italy (GRID:grid.412824.9) (ISNI:0000 0004 1756 8161) 
2  Università del Piemonte Orientale UPO, Department of Translational Medicine, Novara, Italy (GRID:grid.16563.37) (ISNI:0000000121663741) 
3  Azienda Ospedaliera SS. Antonio E Biagio E Cesare Arrigo, Alessandria, Italy (GRID:grid.412824.9) 
4  Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria “Maggiore Della Carita”, Novara, Italy (GRID:grid.412824.9) (ISNI:0000 0004 1756 8161) 
5  Università del Piemonte Orientale UPO, Department of Translational Medicine, Novara, Italy (GRID:grid.16563.37) (ISNI:0000000121663741); Presidio Ospedaliero S. Andrea, ASL VC, Vercelli, Italy (GRID:grid.16563.37) 
6  Presidio Ospedaliero S. Andrea, ASL VC, Vercelli, Italy (GRID:grid.16563.37) 
7  Presidio Ospedaliero S. Andrea, ASL VC, Vercelli, Italy (GRID:grid.412824.9) 
8  Azienda Ospedaliera SS. Antonio E Biagio E Cesare Arrigo, Alessandria, Italy (GRID:grid.16563.37) 
Publication year
2020
Publication date
2020
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
e-ISSN
20452322
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-77698-4
ProQuest document ID
2473267446
Copyright
© The Author(s) 2020. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.