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Abstract
To date, phenomena like tsunamis cannot be predicted and, as a result, simulation models are used to understand the behavior of individuals in emergency evacuation events. Specifically, pedestrian evacuation simulation can be used to better understand how the population can escape an at-risk area. This work, presents a pedestrian evacuation model (PEM) for Rincón, Puerto Rico. The PEM developed provides insight on the vulnerability of Rincón to tsunamis by combining anisotropic least-cost-distance and agent-based approaches. This work, advances the PEM literature by improving upon the population distribution, assigning evacuation responses based on a prediction model, and penalizing evacuation times using a fatigue factor and reaction times. The results of this PEM can assist emergency managers in the evaluation of mitigation strategies by providing a realistic depiction of the time to reach safety under different scenarios. Results, based on the worst-case scenario, indicate that 32.44% of the population of Rincón in atrisk areas would reach safety under 5 minutes, 41.96% between 5 and 15 minutes, and 25.60% in over 15 minutes. Consequently, as many as 3,312 casualties (67.56% of the population in at-risk areas) could be expected in the event of a tsunami that reaches the mainland in less than five minutes.
Keywords
Pedestrian evacuation models, tsunamis, anisotropic models, agent-based models, simulation
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1.Introduction
Over time, the occurrence of natural hazards and the devastation they cause has negatively impacted regions from all over the world. While tsunamis are not the most commonly occurring natural hazard, when they do occur, the regions impacted are typically devastated and are left in a detrimental state. For example, the 2011 East Japan tsunami injured 6,147 people and killed 15,884 people, out of which 94.5% of deaths were attributed to drownings [1]. As these natural hazards are unpredictable and disastrous, government agencies as well as individuals have opted for mitigation measures as an attempt to reduce the losses associated with these phenomena. Evacuation planning has been one of these measures and, while there are real-life exercises (e.g. Caribe Wave, Lantex) to better educate the population, they are not able to capture the reality of an evacuation. No one will panic during an exercise, nor will anyone attempt to enter the hazard zone just to pick...