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© 2021 Colón-González et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.

Abstract

[...]up to 80% of the cases may be asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic and will likely not seek healthcare [12]. [...]vector control, dengue diagnosis, and reporting all suffer delays which vary across time and space [17]. Most of the effects of climate on dengue incidence are delayed by 1 to 2 months due to their effect on the life cycle of both mosquitoes and the dengue virus [31]. [...]the climatic conditions just before the transmission season starts may be indicative of dengue incidence in the following dengue transmission season [32,33]. The use of model superensembles for the development of dengue early warning systems has been seldom explored. [...]predictions are typically made for a selected year or month [18,32,34] rather than for a series of lead times into the future, or a whole season [19,41].

Details

Title
Probabilistic seasonal dengue forecasting in Vietnam: A modelling study using superensembles
Author
Colón-González, Felipe J  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Leonardo Soares Bastos  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Hofmann, Barbara  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Hopkin, Alison; Harpham, Quillon  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Crocker, Tom  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Amato, Rosanna  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Ferrario, Iacopo; Moschini, Francesca  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Samuel, James; Malde, Sajni; Ainscoe, Eleanor  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Vu, Sinh Nam; Tan, Dang Quang; Nguyen, Duc Khoa  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Harrison, Mark  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Tsarouchi, Gina; Lumbroso, Darren  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Brady, Oliver J  VIAFID ORCID Logo  ; Lowe, Rachel  VIAFID ORCID Logo 
First page
e1003542
Section
Research Article
Publication year
2021
Publication date
Mar 2021
Publisher
Public Library of Science
ISSN
15491277
e-ISSN
15491676
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
ProQuest document ID
2513685620
Copyright
© 2021 Colón-González et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.