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Abstract
Projected future climate scenarios anticipate a warmer tropical ocean and changes in surface currents that will likely influence the survival of marine organisms and the connectivity of marine protected areas (MPAs) networks. We simulated the regional effects of climate change on the demographic connectivity of parrotfishes in nine MPAs in the South Atlantic through downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES Earth System Model running the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas trajectory. Results indicate a tropicalization scenario over the tropical southwest Atlantic following an increase of sea surface temperature (SST) between 1.8 and 4.5 °C and changes in mean surface currents between − 0.6 to 0.5 m s−1 relative to present conditions. High mortality rates will reduce demographic connectivity and increase the isolation of oceanic islands. The simulation of organismal response to ocean warming shows that acclimation can significantly improve (p < 0.001) particle survival, promoting connectivity and tropicalization of MPAs, with potential impacts on their functional integrity and long-term resilience.
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1 National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Laboratory of Ocean and Atmosphere Studies (LOA), Earth Observation and Geoinformatics Division, São José dos Campos, Brazil (GRID:grid.419222.e) (ISNI:0000 0001 2116 4512)
2 Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway (GRID:grid.7914.b) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 7443); Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway (GRID:grid.7914.b) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 7443)
3 Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway (GRID:grid.10917.3e) (ISNI:0000 0004 0427 3161); University of Oslo, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, Oslo, Norway (GRID:grid.5510.1) (ISNI:0000 0004 1936 8921)
4 Universidade de São Paulo, Centro de Biologia Marinha (CEBIMar), São Sebastião, Brazil (GRID:grid.11899.38) (ISNI:0000 0004 1937 0722)