Measles Outbreak in Complex Emergency: Estimating Vaccine Effectiveness and Evaluation of the Vaccination Campaign in Borno State, Nigeria, 2019

Abstract

Background: From January to May 2019, large measles outbreaks affected Nigeria. Borno state was the most affected, recording 15,237 suspected cases with the state capital of Maiduguri having 1,125 cases investigated and line-listed by March 2019. In Borno state, 22 of the 27 Local Government Areas (LGAs or Districts), including 37 internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps were affected. In response to the situation, an outbreak response immunization (ORI) campaign was conducted in the 13 most affected LGAs. In addition to conventional vaccination teams, special teams were deployed in security compromised areas, areas with migrants, and for nomadic and IDPs. Here we describe the outbreak and the ORI campaign. We also assess the measles-containing vaccine (MCV) coverage and vaccine effectiveness (VE) in order to quantify the population-level impact

Methods: We reviewed the ORI activities, and conducted an analysis of the surveillance and the outbreak investigation reports. We assessed VE of MCV by applying the screening-method. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted to assess the effect of final classification of cases on the VE of MCV. The MCV coverage was assessed by a post-campaign coverage survey (PCCS) after completion of the ORI through a quantitative survey in the 12 LGAs that were accessible.

Results: Of the total 15,237 reported measles cases, 2,002 cases were line-listed and investigated, and 737 were confirmed for measles by week 9 of 2019. Of the investigated cases 67.3% (n = 1,348) were between 9 and 59 months of age. Among the 737 confirmed cases, only 9% (n = 64) stated being vaccinated with at least 1 dose of MCV. The overall VE for MCV was 98.4 % (95%CI: 97.8 – 98.8). No significant differences were observed in the VE estimates of lab-confirmed and epi-linked cases when compared to the original estimates. The aggregated weighted vaccination coverage was 85.7% (95% CI: 79.6 – 90.1).

Conclusion: The experience in Borno demonstrates that adequate VE can be obtained in conflict-affected areas. In complex emergencies affected by measles outbreaks, health authorities may consider integration with other health strategies and the engagement of security personnel as part of the ORI activities.