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Abstract

This paper proposes a flexible and analytically tractable class of frequency and severity models for predicting insurance claims. The proposed model is able to capture nonlinear relationships in explanatory variables by characterizing the logarithmic mean functions of frequency and severity distributions as neural networks. Moreover, a potential dependence between the claim frequency and severity can be incorporated. In particular, the paper provides analytic formulas for mean and variance of the total claim cost, making our model ideal for many applications such as pricing insurance contracts and the pure premium. A simulation study demonstrates that our method successfully recovers nonlinear features of explanatory variables as well as the dependency between frequency and severity. Then, this paper uses a French auto insurance claim dataset to illustrate that the proposed model is superior to the existing methods in fitting and predicting the claim frequency, severity, and the total claim loss. Numerical results indicate that the proposed model helps in maintaining the competitiveness of an insurer by accurately predicting insurance claims and avoiding adverse selection.

Details

1009240
Business indexing term
Identifier / keyword
Title
A Neural Frequency-Severity Model and Its Application to Insurance Claims
Publication title
arXiv.org; Ithaca
Publication year
2024
Publication date
Feb 26, 2024
Section
Economics
Publisher
Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
Source
arXiv.org
Place of publication
Ithaca
Country of publication
United States
University/institution
Cornell University Library arXiv.org
e-ISSN
2331-8422
Source type
Working Paper
Language of publication
English
Document type
Working Paper
Publication history
 
 
Online publication date
2024-02-27
Milestone dates
2021-06-20 (Submission v1); 2024-02-26 (Submission v2)
Publication history
 
 
   First posting date
27 Feb 2024
ProQuest document ID
2543903223
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/working-papers/neural-frequency-severity-model-application/docview/2543903223/se-2?accountid=208611
Full text outside of ProQuest
Copyright
© 2024. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Last updated
2024-02-28
Database
ProQuest One Academic