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Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic triggered substantial economic and social disruptions. Mitigation policies varied across countries based on resources, political conditions, and human behavior. In the absence of widespread vaccination able to induce herd immunity, strategies to coexist with the virus while minimizing risks of surges are paramount, which should work in parallel with reopening societies. To support these strategies, we present a predictive control system coupled with a nonlinear model able to optimize the level of policies to stop epidemic growth. We applied this system to study the unfolding of COVID-19 in Bahia, Brazil, also assessing the effects of varying population compliance. We show the importance of finely tuning the levels of enforced measures to achieve SARS-CoV-2 containment, with periodic interventions emerging as an optimal control strategy in the long-term.
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1 University of Almería, Department of Informatics, Almería, Spain (GRID:grid.28020.38) (ISNI:0000000101969356)
2 Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Salvador, Brazil (GRID:grid.418068.3) (ISNI:0000 0001 0723 0931); Center of Mathematics of the University of Porto (CMUP), Department of Mathematics, Porto, Portugal (GRID:grid.5808.5) (ISNI:0000 0001 1503 7226)
3 Federal University of Santa Catarina, Department of Automation and Systems, Florianópolis, Brazil (GRID:grid.411237.2) (ISNI:0000 0001 2188 7235)
4 Swansea University, College of Engineering, Swansea, Wales, UK (GRID:grid.4827.9) (ISNI:0000 0001 0658 8800)
5 Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Salvador, Brazil (GRID:grid.418068.3) (ISNI:0000 0001 0723 0931)
6 University of São Paulo, Institute of Physics, São Paulo, Brazil (GRID:grid.11899.38) (ISNI:0000 0004 1937 0722)
7 Federal University of Bahia, Institute of Physics, Salvador, Brazil (GRID:grid.8399.b) (ISNI:0000 0004 0372 8259)
8 Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Salvador, Brazil (GRID:grid.418068.3) (ISNI:0000 0001 0723 0931); Federal University of Bahia, Institute of Physics, Salvador, Brazil (GRID:grid.8399.b) (ISNI:0000 0004 0372 8259)
9 Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ), Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Salvador, Brazil (GRID:grid.418068.3) (ISNI:0000 0001 0723 0931); Federal University of Bahia, Institute of Collective Health, Salvador, Brazil (GRID:grid.8399.b) (ISNI:0000 0004 0372 8259)
10 Federal University of Bahia, Department of Chemical Engineering, Salvador, Brazil (GRID:grid.8399.b) (ISNI:0000 0004 0372 8259)