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Abstract
Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (−20 000 to 27 000) deaths yr−1 due to ozone and 2200 (−350 000 to 140 000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality.
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1 Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
2 US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20004, USA
3 NCAR Earth System Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
4 NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA
5 Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
6 CICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo, Oslo, Norway
7 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Office, Exeter, UK
8 NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
9 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
10 UCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
11 Earth and Environmental Science, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
12 Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
13 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA
14 Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l’Energia e lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile (ENEA), Bologna, Italy
15 School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
16 Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt (DLR) Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
17 GAME/CNRM, Meteo-France, CNRS—Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Toulouse, France
18 Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
19 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA
20 Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE-CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
21 National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand